WIAA D1 State Predictions (Team & Individual)


#1

Ok…let me have it :slight_smile:

Summary:
It has been 10 years since the D1 team champion was in the triple digits (LaFollette – 2006), but this years race is shaping up to play out that way. This will be an absolute dog fight, with the championship coming down to a mere inches. The winner will be decided by 2 points this season!

Individually, the fast times that everyone is anticipating won’t be quite as fast as everyone thinks. A little precipitation this week, followed by a cool stiff breeze on Saturday will make running conditions once again challenging on the mighty RIDGES. That being said, Gessner, Newcomb, and Wagner have one epic battle that ends with Gessner pulling away in the final 800-1200m, quieting everyone discussion of his lack of foot speed at 800m.

Team Predictions:
#1 Middleton – They have been resting, re-energizing, and just plain laying in the weeds since the Verona invite over Labor Day weekend. In a surprise turn of events, a spirited sprint up the finishing hill by a young freshman #5 runner seals the deal.

#2 Mad West – They are right there, but with 2 Middleton runners crossing the line before the first Mad West runner, they are just not able to close the gap.

#3 West Bend West – With the return of their experienced senior runner mid season, this team has been on the upswing…but a little too late for a championship run this season.

#4 Arrowhead – Peaked a couple weeks too early, but still battle to the finishing hill for the championship.

#5 Kimberly – Tremendous improvement in the back half of the season and their experience at big meets carries them to a top 5 finish.

#6 Monona Grove – Of the teams that came out of the Beloit Sectional, they didn’t look like they “went to the well” quite as much as the others, and their ability to cruise to a conference title 2 weeks prior plays to their advantage.

#7 Neenah – I changed my mind about Neenah getting their revenge against WBW winning sectional. Participating in the post season in 2 sports takes its toll on the young sophomore sensation. Team is still deep enough to hold on a top 10 spot.

#8 Stevens Point – Although they had the easiest road to Madison and have the freshest legs of any teams, they just don’t have the depth we anticipated at the beginning of the season.

#9 Homestead – After #1 and #2 runners they will struggle to break the 17 minute mark.

#10 Sun Prairie – The Big 8 conference meet and the brutal sectional in Beloit took their toll on this group. They laid everything on the line last week just to get here and you could see it in each of their legs as they crossed the finish line. They will struggle to a very respectable top 10 finish.

Individual Predictions:
#1 Finn Gessner – 15:14
#2 Gus Newcomb – 15:24
#3 Drew Bosley – 15:33
#4 Brian Jacques – 15:35
#5 Nate Farrell – 15:37
#6 Tannor Wagner – 15:40
#7 Sam Pinkowski – 15:55
#8 Luke Guttormson – 15:59
#9 Jordan Janusiak – 16:02
#10 Issac Benz – 16:02


#2

in relation to this, how many runners are undefeated on the season?


#3

Finn, Wagner and Pinkowski? Does that sound right?


#4

Some of these individual times in general seem a little fast, especially with the weather predictions don’t you think? I believe Ryan Nameth ran in the mid 15:30’s a few times at the ridges, and he is definitely among the best in recent history. If they can do it, all the power to them but I don’t see guys like Brian Jacques and Nate Farrell running times similar to what Nameth ran.


#5

Didnt Nameth kind of go after Hacker senior year? Dustin Fier did the same thing in chasing Solinsky as a senior. Who aims for multiple runner up finishes? I always thought Nameth ran out of gas and ended up high 15:30s. Maybe sacrificed a 15:15 or so.


#6

If its wet/raining, we all know we throw times out with the bath water, we only have to rewind the clock 1 year to see that.

I agree, given history, it seems as if these times do indeed seem a bit agressive. That being said, this collective group of seniors have proven they are in a different class. They collectively have destroyed the states course records over the past 2 months, and they have brought the level of competition to a whole different place over the last 2 years. Along with them have come a group of underclassman that are impressive to say the least.

They are experienced like not many before them. There are 7 runners that have competed in 4 straight D1 state meets, led by an individual that WILL win one of the 2 national races this year (you heard it here first). Finn Gessner, Tannor Wagner, Gus Newcomb, Nate Farrell, Nick Peterson, Derek Franz, and Cole Sandvold are seasoned “veterans” when it comes to running the Ridges. They along with the infusion of a group of very fast Sophomore/Junior runners leads me to believe that it is very well possible that we see something we haven’t seen before this weekend. By my count there are 21 runners that have busted the 16 minute mark, and most multiple times. Last year that number was approximately 17, in 2014 14, and in 2103 maybe 10.

This group just appears to be on the tail end of a normal years “bell curve”.

I truly believe, based upon observation and studying the numbers, that this group of 7-10 runners has the grit and toughness to beat any other state in the heartland regionals best 10 runners. Just my opinion, i’ve been wrong many times before, this time I don’t think so!


#7

You are correct @zen, he went out really fast and tried to stick with Olin as long as he could. His last mile was incredibly slow for him, maybe a byproduct of no gas, maybe a byproduct of not having anyone close to him for the last 400-800 as well. I remember watching Nameth run up that final hill clearly looking behind him, always a sign of coasting coming in.


#8

I would be shocked if Wagner sags back that far. I still pick him in the top 3 but history could repeat itself.


#9

When he hits a wall…he REALLY hits a wall. Based on watching him race the last 3 years, I just don’t think he has it in him to conserve anything, which implies that he may stick with Finn until he is in trouble. I don’t believe that Tannor can break Finn. But, I do think Finn can break Tannor. As you said, he has a history.

I don’t wish that on anyone, I am sure that Tannor is a great young man, but this entire scenario just points to either a really, really good outcome for him (he actually beats Finn), or a really, really bad outcome (he fades hard at the end and the trail pack passes him, circa 1600m last spring).


#10

The incidental placement of Drew Bosley - like father like son.

(Please dont get that tattoo)

Andy Bosley took 3rd three times. And then Joe Stintzi went 2-3-3 (I think). Nameth 3-2-2. Fier 6-2-2.


#11

This is why I think Tannor Wagner will be one of the best indoor track runners Wisconsin has ever had and in college too. He likes to be grinding hard early on and can do well in solo efforts when he’s in shape.


#12

My predictions:
Arrowhead 122
Middleton 122
Madison West 122

Individuals
Gessner 15:24.2
Wagner 15:25.1
Newcomb 15:49.7


#13

A three way tie, huh?


#14

That would be exciting and interesting


#15

So this isn’t necessarily how I would rank them but how I think it will go:

Teams:

  1. Madison West - 5th man edges Middleton again
  2. Middleton - just shy of a state championship, top four do their part
  3. Sun Prairie - ran like a top team last week, Big Eight goes 1-2-3
  4. South Milwaukee - a lot of power from the top three
  5. Hudson - balance, balance, balance the mystery of the North prevails with its balance
  6. Homestead - it doesn’t always make sense but with the top 2 anything can happen
  7. Arrowhead - late season got to them, Sandvold (Oconomowoc) in the top 15
  8. Monona Grove - will be back next year for a trophy and coach will have a better idea
  9. Stevens Point - not enough to duct tape a good season but enough for top 10
  10. West Bend West - chalk it up as a win, they will be back next year

Individuals:

  1. 14:47 Finn Gessner - new state record
  2. 15:19 Nate Farrell - smart race, senior boost, almost matches his PR on the big stage
  3. 15:31 Drew Bosley - like father like son, eclipses Phil Downs/Chris Solinsky class record
  4. 15:36 Gus Newcomb - fades in last mile after going for Finn
  5. 15:39 Tannor Wagner - fades after taking it out hard against Finn, still an improvement
  6. 15:44 Jordan Janusiak - runs his own race and tops the junior class
  7. 15:46 Sam Pinkowski - caps off a nice career, will be hungry in track
  8. 15:49 Brian Jacques - goes with the big boys early on but still finishes with a nice time
  9. 15:51 Ansel Fellman - been winning races the past few weeks, becomes a state elite
  10. 15:54 Thomas Miller - on the grind as per usual and senior boost propels rite of passage as state elite

#16

If that happens then it goes Madison West, Arrowhead, Middleton on 6th man :sweat_smile:

Also, something tells me Brookfield East will either be top 10 or near the bottom. They looked like a team with no business being at state at GMC (4th behind three teams that didn’t make it), but then had a great race at sectionals. Inconsistent team but pretty decent on the right day.


#17

d1 girls.davre.

d1 boys. 1) arrowhead 2) Middleton 3) wbw 4) homestead 5) kimberly 6) point 7) Mad west 8) monoma grove 9) Waukesha north 10) sun prarie 11) hudson

individuals- 2 national runners tanner and finn. no one is close to them. bosley will win state next year but he won’t go out with them. Gus I don’t believe will either. Farrell might which will hurt him. I believe Tannor is better at 400-3200 over Finn but Finn is a little better in cross country. Tannor will not run for second. his only goal is to win. he will either have a shot to win or hit the wall. we all agree on this i think. I respect Finn and think he is great. but I am going to say he can’t drop Tannor on this day and Tannor wins. if finn takes this loss he will get better for nationals not worse as you learn more from setbacks

15:02 Tannor Wagner
15:03 Finn
15:33 baby boz
15:36 Gus
15:44 Perez
15:46 Sandovol
15:47 wbw #1
1550 fondulac #1
15:55 Oconomowoc #1
16:04 farrell (walking in)


#18

Madison West 7th??


#19

@XC1 I’m no riplips or Zen so who knows. but in cross country when your number 1 guy is a 800 specialist your asking to go big or go home. I find 800 specialists have the most end of year upside as a darkhorse and downside as well as in general they lack consistency. but I’m not negative on Madison west and am fine if they win which they could. these are just my off the cuff predictions which may be right or may be wrong. one last caveat. if john Hyland runs I may switch Point to 1 before the race as he is a huge upgrade to this team.


#20

Perez #5?