His 58:22 converts to a 2:03:00 flat. I think he has the strength to do it, what do you guys think?
I think he’ll break it, not sure by how much though
I’m calling a 2:03:46
I don’t see him getting it. Does he have the ability to get it? I’d say yes, or at least very close. I just don’t see all of the pieces that need to go into running that time falling into place. Weather, pacers, feeling 100% etc are all very challenging things to line up. That said, I wish him the best of luck, I’d be really excited for him if he takes it, and he’s got the balls to go for it so we’ll see
great half shape and great marathon shape are two totally different animals. i think if he were in marathon WR shape, he wouldn’t have run 58:22.
i predict he’ll be on pace for sub-2:04 but fade over the last 10k and run in the mid-2:04 range.
I calculate him out at:
2:03:34 + 30s for inexperience = 2:04:04 (4:44 average)
I think it would be healthy for the sport to have the record go down and Tadesse’s a good guy so I hope he gets it (sorry Geb, you’re still the GOAT!)