State Meet


#1

prediction timeeeeee

with sectional meets wrappin up this weekend i figure it’s about time to start predicting and analyzing. first thing i saw was the section 4 meet, maine endwell sweeps their race with a 30 second compression from 1-8


#2

Impressive performances in Section IV.

Maine Endwell is a young squad as well although I don’t think they have the front runners like Marcellus, East Aurora, Bayport and Wayne, so they’ll have a solid top five or six finish at states.

I’m really not sure who will post the fastest time of the day; I sense many runners will trade up for a NXN or Footlocker trip with a great race that day.


#3

Shaker and Burnt Hills both looked very strong in Section 2. Shaker 1-3-6-8-11, 15:27 average at SPAC. BH 1-3-4-6-12, 15:53 average (with Otis coasting in 15:27). Don’t foresee either team losing next week.


#4

FM had a solid race in section 3. They got out hard but didnt finish too well and they have a 5th-man problem. SO unless they can figure out the back end of their top 7 they’ll have a tough time beating Shaker or Warwick


#5

AA-Sam Place & Shaker
A-Otis Ubriaco & Burnt Hills
B-Connor Crowley & Bayport / Bluepoint
C-Dylan Racha & Holland Patent
D-Matt Cheney & Geneseo

Of course, the best individual race of the day will take place in the AA race. Out of the top 20 speed rated runners in NYS, 14 of them will be competing in this race. The race favorite has got to be Martin Hehir of Washingtonville, who’s been on fire, however, with the likes of Sam Place, Alex Saavedra, Chris Buchanan, Shaun Thompson & Tim Luthin in this field, nothing is a given. :slight_smile:


#6

AA - FM Shaun Thompson
A - Burnt Hills Otis
B - Marcellus Jesse Garn
C - Holland Patent Racha
D - Geneseo Cheney

section 3 sweep of individual titles. otis counts :stuck_out_tongue:


#7

AA Shaker Alex Saavedra
A Burnt Hills Otis Ubriaco
B Bayport Blue Point Jesse Garn
C Fonda Fultonville Dylan Racha
D Geneseo Matt Cheney


#8

AA Rush Henrietta Place
AMcquaid Ubriaco
B Wayne Manahan
C Holland Patent cody Racha
D Geneseo Cheney


#9

Correct me if I am wrong but here are the five man average SR for teams that qualified in AA…

Shaker- 181.3
FM- 178.4
Connetquot-172.8
Warwick-171.7
RH- 171.5
Calhoun- 171.2
Arlington- 170.1
Ithaca- 169.2
Williamsville North- 161.6

This does not reflect what I think the results will be, but just thought i would put this one out there… FM is knocking on Shakers door but i dont know if they will be able to get Shakers strong pack… The teams from 3-8 are really up for grabs and if one team has a good race, some heads can really be turned.


#10

AA - Shaker , Saavedra
A - Burnt Hills , Ubriaco
B - Maine-Endwell or Pearl River , Garn
C - Holland Patent , Toss Up between the Racha’s
D - Geneseo , Cheney

I pretty much agree with everyone else. In class b, i can’t choose between M-E and pearl river. I like pearl river mostly because i wanted to be different than everyone else, but an underdog is going to have to win one of these races and class b looks like the tightest race of the day and they are a section 1 school ,so what the hell i went a little nuts, sue me. btw i think Taylor Love is going to run a pretty good race in the a race In AA i think it will be tight in the beginning of the race, but Shakers guys will start to separate themselves from the rest about 2 miles into the race. Good Luck to all runners.


#11

Boys
AA - Shaker, Place
A- Ubriaco, BH-BL
B - East Aurora, Kerr
C - Fonda-Fultonville, Dylan Racha
D - Geneseo, Cheney

Girls
AA - FM, Rutledge (only Predmore and Leff keep FM from perfect 15 against state again)
A - BH-BL, Cuffe
B - East Aurora, Mullins
C - Greenwich, Watson
D - Maple Grove, Rabideau


#12

Is that just at the sectional meets or season avg?


#13

Just sectional ahaha. I have a life I don’t have the time to do seasonal rankings. Would be interesting to see what the seasonal average SR would be.


#14

1-4 is going to be a battle. I don’t know about you but Shaker has the target on their backs, and this is their first state meet in years. They might crack under pressure, just look how they finished at NXN Regionals. Not saying it will happen but Warwick, FM, Rh have all met at the state meet. Warwick and FM have the most experience and really good coaching. Shaker and Rh are somewhat new to the State meet. Rh went last year and finished solid. Warwick finished in top 5 and FM won. I don’t think its wise to use SR especially since they have been very wrong in predicting races in the past.


#15

Shaker has met every challenge all season. Yes, they will be the favorites, but the rest of the field is pretty good too. It’ll be a very great race to watch.

I like seeing the SR’ings and using them as a guide only. Its not the end all prediction, runners still have to race. So to say its not wise to use them in predicting races, I just don’t agree with that statement…they’re only a guide.


#16

Speed ratings are merely an indication, agreed… but they’ve been pretty accurate as a predictive tool. Would be interested to see where you feel they’ve been “very wrong” in predicting races in the past.

Shaker’s biggest problem last year was inconsistency. They should’ve beaten Shen at sectionals, but got off-races by a couple of guys. Ran well at Feds, then not so great at NXN-NY. They seem to have resolved that problem this year; Libruk and Vallecorsa have been rock-solid all season, Delago continues to improve in his first year of XC, Gilboy and Foster are by far the best 4-5 guys in the state. With Recchia very close and Marthy coming on after missing the first part of the season… they’re a very strong favorite IMO. Somebody will have to step up huge to beat them.

As for the “experience” angle: Libruk’s in his 4th season of varsity XC, Gilboy and Foster in their 3rd… they compete in the toughest conference in the state, so they can’t win their league or sectionals just by showing up. Plus they have the experience of easily handling a stronger field at Easterns (including Fayetteville, Warwick, and RH) than they’ll see at the state meet. On top of that, they’ve improved a fair amount since then; Delago was their #4 at Manhattan, now has to be considered at least a dark-horse to win the AA race. And if you think they don’t also have “really good coaching”… you’re mistaken. Ed Springstead has a meet named after him for a reason.


#17

so FM will score 15 again? (not perfect but still 15)


#18

My predictions:

Shaun Thompson blows away the competition by so much that the rest of the races are irrelevant.


#19

hey sam


#20

don’t call me sam, it’s creepy