State Meet Predictions


#1

First, let’s take a look at this state meet schedule:

STATE MEET EVENT SCHEDULE

Distance Events Highlighted


Second, below is an estimated mid-distance event schedule that no one can quote me on because it is inexact.

MID-DISTANCE EVENT SCHEDULE

BOYS
GIRLS

DAY 1

TIME DIVISION EVENT HEATS
09:30AM D3/D2      4x800M RELAY 4 @ 10min
11:30AM D3/D2 1600M RUN 2 @ 07min
01:10PM D3/D2 800M RUN 4 @ 05min
02:10PM D3/D2 3200M RUN 2 @ 13min
04:30PM D1 4x800M RELAY 2 @ 10min
05:30PM D1 1600M RUN 2 @ 07min
07:20PM D1 800M RUN 2 @ 05min
07:45PM D1 3200M RUN 1 @ 13min

DAY 2

TIME DIVISION EVENT HEATS
10:00AM D3/D2/D1 4x800M RELAY 6 @ 11min
12:30PM D3/D2/D1 1600M RUN 4 @ 06min
03:30PM D3/D2/D1 800M RUN 6 @ 04min
04:00PM D3/D2/D1 3200M RUN 3 @ 14min

Third, take a refresher with the sectional layouts:

D1 | D2 | D3


Fourth, take another refresher with last year’s State Meet track results as well as the 2018 cross country results:

RESULTS TABLE


QUESTIONS:

  • Which regional/sectional events will potentially be “overloaded” and extraordinarily difficult?
  • What are some of your predictions that may be unexpected by others?
  • Who are runners you think are ready to step it up after conference?
  • Who will be the teams to beat in the overall team scoring?
  • Which state records are in jeopardy?

#2

I will be back with more but the 4x800 is likely over. Caleb Easton is running only the 4x800 and mile. Surprised no 800 as well given it’s last but he isn’t running that event either. That being said Middleton could run sub 7:45 if they need to. Rowan is skipping the 3200 so he will be very fresh day 2 for the 1600 and 800. I haven’t analyzed the 800 field yet but potter king and Caleb Snelson aren’t running so so far the blazing 400 guys aren’t doing the event. Both king and potter will both be dangerous anchors in the 4x800 but despite both of them having good teams that will likely make state neither has the 4 horseman that Middleton will put up in that race. Bosley s triple will be harder at sectionals than state I think but if he can run for third in each race and get out of each event than he will enter each race (the 3200, the 1600 and the 800) as the favorite. Especially with none of the speed guys running the 800 although ellenburg and the Craig runner are both outstanding there is zero reason why Bosley (when fresh) couldn’t run sub 1:52 or better


#3

Quality and very odd regional: The Brookfield central regional is really good in the middle and distance events. Tons of good runners. 6 squads seeded under 3:30 in the 4x400 is impressive. 7 guys 10:05 in the 3200, 7 under 4:31 and 7 under 2:01. That being said no true standouts (other than Vance) from this regional just solid runners and should be close races as the 800 1-7 could win as the best guy isn’t even running. Things that make you go hmmmmm. JJ henner not running an open event. Even more so mark brown the favorite in the 800 not running an open event after winning conference. Both are in the 4x800 and 4x400 but still bizzzzare . Oconomowoc maybe a potential second in the 4x800 not running the event and with Neenah not loading up second place is there for who wants it. Brookfield east has a good shot for that probably although I don’t think they have their top 4 guys in the race either although may be wrong they have lots of depth. Not to dive into another regional but Green Bay preble did load up their 4x800 but their ace Khalid Muhammad is running the 4x800 1600 and 3200. He is a good runner but as a junior that triple probably is too much. Spash has an interesting crew especially if Franz peaks well which I will give him the benefit of the doubt and expect he will as a senior But running a true freshman in the weak leg is a bit too risky for my blood I would have ran a quarter miler over a freshman even though he has run good times as a freshman. Still Franz milkowski and lepac is a real solid 1-2-3 punch and they could fight for second at state if they are on and peaking well. They need to make sure they are in the fast heat this year which may go against the wishes of their individuals who are running the 1600 at sectionals


#4

SPASH doesn’t have a 400 guy this year that could hang anywhere near Scharbarth in the 8. He earned his place with that group. They have a good number of distance guys who are ok in the 400, and some sprinters who are also acceptable, but having 10 or 12 guys that could maybe go 52.x doesn’t make up for the fact that none of them has gone faster than :51.9. The 4 this year for them has been a bridge just a little too far, or not quite far enough.