State Meet Predictions Anyone?


#1

Teams or Individuals.


#2

There is a spreadsheet I did. It has the state meet scored out by seasonal bests of all athletes and relays that made it to state. Results are Lake Park 51, Wheaton North 45, Providence Catholic 32, O’Fallon and Belleville West 31, Minooka 30.5, Edwardsville 28, Grant and Pekin 27. Nobody else is above 23.

Invididually,

100- Cole Henderson, Pekin. He has 4 races under 10.65 this year, nobody else even has one
200- Zach Gordon, Wheaton North. I’ve seen him run in person, and aside from him leading the state by .25, watching him run makes me feel he even has another gear
400- Sam Bransby, Naperville Central. He’s had steady improvement all year. This even though with Kenneth Allen not making out of sectionals is very wide open
800- Alex Pierce, Minooka. I’m not going to argue with their tradition, on top of the fact that Hauser will be doing the 1600 and Klamm is just too young.
1600- Jack Keelan, St. Ignatius. I just don’t see anybody that can beat him. I think he’ll be pushed though, and I look forward to the result of it (possible 4:0x mid)
3200- Jack Keelan, St. Ignatius. Again, I think the talent gap is too wide.
110H- Antonio Shenault, Lake Park. He hasn’t lost a race since tying to the 100th at his indoor conference, and he steps up to the level of competition that he has. Kendziera of Prospect, and Helmin of Providence are really tough though.
300H- Dave Kendziera, Prospect. This is his event, he is faaar ahead of the field.
4x100- Wheaton North
4x200- Minooka. If Gordon runs this race for Wheaton North though, they take it.
4x400- Belleville West. They have great tradition in this race, and the only sub 3:20 all year in 3A
4x800- York. It’s time they return to prominence.
High Jump- Mike Monroe, Providence Catholic. I think the athlete that gets to 6’9 with the least misses will win.
Long Jump- Scott Filip, Lake Park. He’s risen to every challenge he’s had this year in LJ, and is always consistent. However Gordon of WN and Harris of LT both are capable of 24
Ttriple Jump- Shawn Koch, Lake Park. If Nash from BW jumps 49, Shawn will jump 50. You can quote me.
Pole Vault- Luke Winder, Plainfield Central. If the weather cooperates I also think we’ll see good attempts at 17.
Shot Put- Brandon Lombardino, Grant.
Discus- Brandon Lombardino, Grant. He’s far and away the best thrower in the state. He thrives on competition. I can see 205 and 64


#3

Keelan wins the 3200 over Yunk, but I’m going to go out on a limb here and say someone like Garret Lee upsets in the 1600. I’d love to see Keelan pull off the triple crown, but Lee (and possibly Riba if he doesn’t run the 3200) will be lining up for the 1600 fresh and that could be a deciding factor. It’ll all depend on how conservative Keelan is during the 3200. I think he’ll try to keep it pretty controlled and just run for the win, but if anybody is able to push him enough he might have some trouble winning the 1600.

The 800 will be very interesting because there is nobody that is clearly ahead of the rest of the field. Kyle Hauser has the best time in the state so far 1:53.98 so I guess you could consider him being the favorite if you had to pick one, but there’s just too many guys like Alex Pierce who have run in the 1:54 range that are just as likely to win it. Who will be able to close out the last 200m the fastest?

I can’t really pick a clear winner in the 4x800 either. I know Quick has had his eye on a 4x800 title for a while now, and the Palatine group could definitely get it done as long as Brown & Zambrano can handle the 4x800/1600 double on Friday and come back strong for finals on Saturday. Then you have Barrington, Stevenson, Hersey, Lane Tech, Bartlett, etc all right on their heels. I could easily see Lane Tech pulling off the repeat again this year as well. I think the biggest edge could be who has the most fresh legs on the relay, which right now looks like it might be Barrington & Hersey, who have no members of their relay in any individual distance events. Stevenson and Lane each have one runner in the 1600.


#4

I’m gonna keep my word and go with my preseason predictions

4x800 - Minooka - This is theirs to lose, they should’ve won it last year, and they’ll win it this year.
800 - Alex Pierce, Sr, Minooka - (I had Joey Santillo but I had no idea who was running. I’m just changing from one Minooka senior to another).
1600 - Garrett Lee Sr, Belvidere North -This is where it gets tricky. Riba and Perrier won’t go for the 3200 crown but try to sit back and kick thus going for the 2-3 punch. Yunk will push Keelan as far as he can, and exhaust Keelan for the 1600 allowing for his teammate (Lee) to get the nod in the mile.
3200 - Jack Keelan, Sr, Saint Ignatius - There’s no way Keelan loses it. Keelan wins, followed by Riba, Perrier, and Yunk gets either fourth or fifth.

Keelan is like Jager his senior year. Clearly the most dominant, but the talent, especially in the mile, is too much for him to complete the triple and he comes up just short.


#5

What makes you so sure that Riba and Perrier are shoe ins for kicking to 2/3. It’s a really talented field to assume that, especially considering they’re looking at possibly 4 races over the weekend


#6

Okay, I guess I’ll say my predictions.

4*800: This is a tough one…there are a lot of teams who could win, but I’m gonna go with Minooka for now assuming they run Pierce and Santillo. Other teams to watch for are Barrington, Lane Tech, and Jones (just to name a few).

3200: Jack Keelan. I don’t see anyone beating him in this event, but maybe I’m wrong. I am excited to see some fast times in this event, and hopefully, it will be interesting to watch.

800: If Pierce runs the 4*800, I think Kyle Hauser’s gonna win the open 800.

1600: This one is going to depend on a couple of factors. If Riba and Perrier don’t run any events prior, I definitely think one of them could win. However, I think they will run both 3200 and 1600. With that in mind, I think Alex Baker from CL Central could pull the upset here.


#7

wow that is spreadsheet is awesome … nice work …
for predictions
4x8 - Lyons … just cause
3200 - Keelan
800 - don’t know …
1600 - Keelan


#8

Jager had to run 8:52 and 6 guys broke 9:10… I’m not sure Keelan is going to get pushed that hard in the 3200. There are a few guys that are capable of it, but I don’t think it will be that fast.

That said, I don’t think Keelan will win both. There are just too many talented guys in the 1600


#9

My distance event predictions:

4x8:

Here’s my guess for the finals:

2 Jones College Prep 7:54.691 Elmhurst (York) 7:56.401 Lane Tech 7:51.431 Minooka 7:52.05
1 Barrington 7:50.56

4 Palatine (H.S.) 7:55.89

3 Saint Ignatius College Prep 7:55.071 Orland Park (Sandburg) 7:53.841 Jacobs 7:54:021 Bartlett 7:51.673 Crystal Lake Central 7:56.23
5 Lake Zurich 7:56.98

I believe Jamison Dale is going to have a nasty State Meet and I believe he is on this team so I thought I would pick Jones for the win. The rest of the order was kind of just based on distance/4x8 powerhouses of the past or I think teams with going showing at the big 4x8 meets? This is up in the air, I guess I feel semi-more confident in who will make it to finals than what the finalists will finish. Winning time 7:50 (though I won’t be surprised if some of these teams pull out four 1:56/7/8 guys and go 7:47ish).

3200:

These should be the top guys in this order:

1 Jack Keelan Sr. Saint Ignatius 9:12.681 Alex Riba Sr. O’Fallon 9:15.662 Patrick Perrier Jr. O’Fallon 9:16.631 Tyler Yunk Sr. Belvidere North 9:11.492 Jesse Reiser So. McHenry 9:12.051 Nolan McKenna Wheaton Warrenville South 9:15.832 Scott Milling Elmhurst (York) 9:17.431 Caleb Beck Sr. Oswego 9:15.541 Steven Salvano Jr. Buffalo Grove 9:19.993 Joe Cowlin Sr. Prairie Ridge 9:19.601 Alex Gold Sr. Deerfield 9:17.81I think Keelan wins this one. Let’s pick a winning time…9:06. I feel Riba and Perrier will force themselves into the 2-3 because they really want points, I guess? I wanted to put Yunk higher and I really wanted to put Reiser higher, but I just went the conservative route and put Riba and Perrier in there. I figure the top three are doubling, they won’t push the pace and they’ll all be strong at the end. McKenna, Milling, and Salvano all have been lookin’ good. I wanted to put Beck higher as well, but I sadly do not have as much confidence in him as I do in the three I just mentioned before. Cowlin and Gold have both been looking good, but I cannot make myself put them before any of the above mentioned guys.

800:

I got no idea what is going on in this one so I’ll just throw out like five names.

1 Johnny Leverenz Jr. Danville 1:54.461 Alex Pierce Sr. Minooka 1:54.251 Kyle Hauser Sr. Chicago (Marist) 1:55.112 Matt Anyiwo Jr. Homewood Flossmoor 1:56.951 Carl Klamm So. Evanston Twp. 1:54.45That will be top 5 in that order. Can’t tell you anything about them.Winning time 1:53.

1600:

These are the 12 to make finals and the final will finish in this order:


4:09.62 Jack Keelan (Sr.), Chicago (St. Ignatius College Prep)4:13.19
4:14.80 Jamison Dale (Sr.), Chicago (Jones) 4:16.97


4:10.41 Alex Riba (Sr.), O’Fallon (H.S.) 4:21.47

4:13.23 Zach Smith (Jr.), Downers Grove (North) 4:18.89

4:11.83 Garrett Lee (Sr.), Belvidere (North) 4:21.86

4:16.21 Alex Baker (Sr.), Crystal Lake (Central) 4:16.58

4:20.27 Billy Bund (Sr.), Lake Forest (H.S.) 4:20.27

4:13.36 Patrick Perrier (Jr.), O’Fallon (H.S.) 4:22.34
4:18.12 Martin Martinez (Sr.), Gurnee (Warren) 4:18.12


4:18.60 Caleb Beck (Sr.), Oswego (H.S.) 4:18.60
4:17.36 Micah Beller (Sr.), Skokie (Niles North) 4:21.70


4:17.01 Pat McMahon (Sr.), Orland Park (Sandburg) 4:19.47

I do think Keelan will pull off the double. The winning time will be 4:09. As I said before I like Dale in this meet and he’s finished second behind Keelan a lot, sad to say I think that trend will continue, but personally I’d be happy to get second at state. I have not been seeing any great doubles throughout the season here, but I picked Riba third, it’s his last season here, he’ll do well this race. I think Zack Smith is dirty good, I was surprised he wasn’t in the 32, but whatever, I still think he will finish strong this race. I think Garrett Lee has a good race, but nothing extraordinary just because I haven’t heard anything from him since Arcadia. Alex Baker was another one I would have picked to do well in the 32, but he’s in the 1600 so whatever. I picked him here. After hearing about Billy Bund at Sectionals I’m really rootin’ for this kid, but without a lot of racing then racing back to back, I don’t see him going very far below 4:20 or winning any sort of final kick. Um, I just predict the double gets to Perrier. For Martinez, Beller, and McMahon, I couldn’t put them above the rest of the guys there so I guess that is where they have to go? I think Beck will do a pretty good double, his sectionals double, I thought did look very good, I’ll he’ll get some good times for himself in the 32 and 16, but the places will not be very high.


#10

Reiser ran the 4x8 for McHenry. Yunk for Belvidere North as well. I’d like to see how/if that affects their 3200 performance tomorrow, as both are favorites to finish in the top 5. Also Burnett was smart enough to hold Riba and Perrier from the 4x8, I called it.


#11

1 Jamison Dale (Sr.), Chicago (Jones) 4:11.99Q
2 Patrick Perrier (Jr.), O’Fallon (H.S.) 4:12.66q
3 Micah Beller (Sr.), Skokie (Niles North) 4:13.93q
4 Billy Bund (Sr.), Lake Forest (H.S.) 4:14.60q
5 Caleb Beck (Sr.), Oswego (H.S.) 4:15.07q
6 Christian Zambrano (Sr.), Palatine (H.S.) 4:20.70
7 Paul Steeno (Sr.), Wheaton (North) 4:23.23
8 Angel Estrada (Jr.), Highland Park 4:24.86
9 Jake Fitzgerald (Sr.), Plainfield (South) 4:26.84
10 Mateo Hernandez (Jr.), Berwyn-Cicero (Morton) 4:28.22
11 Chris Orlow (Jr.), Batavia 4:28.57 [B]

Heat No. 2[/B]

1 Alex Riba (Sr.), O’Fallon (H.S.) 4:15.59Q
2 Ethan Brodeur (Sr.), Naperville (Central) 4:16.92q
3 Alex Baker (Sr.), Crystal Lake (Central) 4:17.23q
4 Garrett Lee (Sr.), Belvidere (North) 4:17.43q
5 Nate Mroz (Jr.), Elmhurst (York) 4:19.78
6 Charles Thornton (Jr.), Oswego (East) 4:23.12
7 Graham Brown (So.), Palatine (H.S.) 4:23.45
8 Dru Rozewicki (Sr.), New Lenox (Lincoln-Way Central) 4:25.29
9 Connor Horn (Fr.), Naperville (Neuqua Valley) 4:27.78
10 Mike Bianchina (Sr.), Geneva 4:30.73
11 Harry Winter (Jr.), Palatine (Fremd) 4:38.74 [B]

Heat No. 3[/B]

1 Jack Keelan (Sr.), Chicago (St. Ignatius College Prep) 4:15.34Q
2 Nolan McKenna (Jr.), Wheaton (W. Warrenville South) 4:17.93q
3 Zach Smith (Jr.), Downers Grove (North) 4:18.02q
4 Martin Martinez (Sr.), Gurnee (Warren) 4:18.15
5 Peter Cotsirilos (Jr.), Winnetka (New Trier) 4:18.86
6 Marcelo Burbano (Sr.), Chicago (Lane) 4:19.34
7 Quentin Shaffer (Sr.), Mt. Prospect (Prospect) 4:21.10
8 Omero Montalvo (Sr.), Berwyn-Cicero (Morton) 4:23.26
9 Chris May (Sr.), Elmhurst (York) 4:23.42
10 Joe Sulentic (Sr.), Hoffman Estates (Conant) 4:27.89
11 Jared Borowsky (Fr.), Lincolnshire (Stevenson) 4:29.35
12 Kyle Maloney (So.), Chicago (Jones) 4:30.44
13 Tommy Kolacki (So.), New Lenox (Lincoln-Way Central) 4:43.37


#12

4:11.99 after running his team’s 4*800 (that didn’t qualify for the finals, unfortunately). Imagine what Dale could run without having run any previous races. Also, it’s nice to see Ethan Brodeur running well again after a somewhat disappointing race at sectionals.


#13

Yeah, after watching it I’m thinking Jones had Dale fold his leg though in the 4x8 after seeing how bad the first 3 legs ran. Looks like he only ran 2:04. Is unfortunate though tha that same team with 3 sophomores on it went 7:52 a few weeks ago. Maybe underclassmen got spooked


#14

If I’m Martin Martinez I’d be really upset with myself. He didn’t do what he needed to in order for his heat to be fast enough to pull people through. Credit Dale for helping out everyone in his heat.

Also Holy Billy Bund, Batman. Comes from not racing to 4:14 in 2 weeks


#15

Splits of Leader’s time

Heat 1 - 63.0, 63.4 (2:06.4), 62.0, 63.6. I think Dale led all four laps. The last 3 certainly.

Heat 2 - 64.5, 67.3 (2:11.8), 65.0, 58.8. Might be just a little off (half second at most). Had a horse in this race and was paying closer attention to him. Don’t remember who the lap leaders were.

Heat 3 - 65.6, 64.6 (2:10.2), 65.7, 59.4. Keelan in lead at 1200.

Was anyone in the 4x8, besides Dale, able to qualify for the 1600 finals? I see several that attempted to do both, but haven’t yet found another that got through in the 1600.

I think the wind was a bit tough, and added to the difficulty of doubling. I had Pierce of Minooka with an easy looking 1:53 low or better split in the 4x8, but he had to work hard for a 1:55.4 in the open 800.


#16

Who was the last person to pull off the triple crown?
Also.My picks for top three (in order) of the 1600 are Keelan, lee, and bund. I remember back in XC that people pulled for Keelan cuz he had spunk, and that’s how I’m feeling about bund…so yeah…


#17

Alex Baker anchored for CLC. Has run 9:04 for 3200 and could be very dangerous in finals


#18

posts from a different thread where this exact same question was asked 1 week ago.


#19

not listed in the official results for today, sure he anchored?


#20

That went just as expected