All this talk about Rupp going sub 13 but how about Bekele closing well to come in fourth. He said he just got a track put in and is now starting training on soft surfaced tracks. I think he will be fit enough to run the 5/10 double. Obviously Farah is the favorite right now, however I don’t think you can count out KB with two months left to go and him making significant progress in the last month.
Also, if you watch the video. Rupp and Bekele both ran near 58 seconds for the last lap but Bekele was a few steps back because of the dude that fell. Another thing to think about.
I don’t understand the hype about Bekele’s injury. He ran 26:43 to close out last summer. Times like that look like he’s pretty much over his injuries.
As much as I like Rupp, he again proves he has no top end and gets his butt kicked in the last lap of a race. If he wants to win a medal in London he’ll have to push the pace. I’m thinking 12:50 or better, because everybody who’s with him will outkick him, so he has to ensure there are only 2 others with him to get a bronze.
His PB is 26:17
In 2005, closest he has come to that was 26:25 at Pre in 08. Certainly can’t be left out from medal contention, however.
26:17 is so otherworldly I’d argue his current times are the result of better drug screening. That said, there aren’t a lot of people who can better a 26:43. He has a real good shot at gold if he’s in the same shape he was at the end of last year.
Heck, I’d be happy with 26:17 for 8KM. These days, event 7KM!
The interesting thing here is that he can ‘only’ muster a 13:01 right now, but likely has a better shot at the 10k as he rounds into form. I wouldn’t be surprised to see something similar to last year (26:40s). The question is - is that enough?
And I don’t think so.
26:4x won’t be enough for gold at 10k? I don’t know look how close he would have been too Rupp if dude doesn’t fall and he still closed well. I see the next two months, if he stays injury free could be what he needs to win the gold. He usually has a superb kick and he said he needs to start working on speed. So I am putting him down for a medal and as we get closer we’ll see about that gold coming back to KB.
Being able to drop a 53 after 24 laps is much easier when you have many years of consistent training behind you. Bekele missed 2010 and most of 2011 to injury and is just starting to round into form. I don’t think his kick is going to be as stellar as we’ve seen in the past.
And I can almost guarantee that no championship race will be run at <27:00 pace, unless Tadese or a similar character really wants to stretch it out. But the way the final is normally run, one needs to be in at least 26:4x shape in order to cover the move over the last 1k-2k that the East Africans are going to make. Running 27:20 pace for 20 laps and then having to surge hard and still drop a <60 sec last 400m ain’t no picnic.
i dont know if its a matter of top end speed, more the specific strength to run close to that top end speed at the end of his race. Bekele’s 1500 pb is only 3:32 and his open 400 49.x
First of all, Rupp is not capable of “12:50 or better.” If he was dumb enough to try to run a time like that from the front in the olympic final, he would almost certainly end up half a lap behind the winner. Second of all, his finishing speed has been looking damn good for a little snot-nosed white boy this year. He nearly out-kicked Farah and Andrews at Oxy when they all ran 3:34-high, and this weekend he out kicked the world record holder fair and square (Bekele lost about a quarter of a second at most when kipkoech fell, but was more than two and a half seconds behind Rupp at the finish). You’ve got your analysis all wrong.
rupp couldnt go sub 12:50 if he tried. when koech did 12:53 indoors in that dusseldorf place last year or however long ago that was it was seen as a miracle from above.
Bekele – Supposedly he’s been healthy since last year, and his manager has said that his lackluster performances have been off of light training so that he doesn’t hurt himself again before the games. He’s been quoted as not doing more than 80-90mpw so far this year. His personal track was finished less than a month ago too. If he can run 13:01 more than two months out of the Olympics, I’d say he still has a great shot at silver in the 10k, and depending on who lines up for the 5k, a great shot at silver in that event too. Those races are Mo’s to lose if he shows up healthy and doesn’t fall. Who thinks Mo is better than Sileshi Sihine in 2004 (PR 26:39)? I do. The thing about Bekele is that he could turn his 13:01 into something like 12:51 fitness by the time the 10k is here on August 4.
Rupp may now have the speed to compete for a top 5 finish, but he’s going to need the tools to position himself perfectly. He won’t have the luxury of a race that’s spread out on the last lap in the 5k. In the 10k, he’ll need to stay within 2-3 seconds of the leaders.
Jos Hermens was a doper, so why not his stable too?
Allegations aside, it’s hard to imagine Kenenisa not showing up to the games ready to defend. The Ethiopians always seem to pull a few things out of their hat come the Olys.
By which I mean PRP, IGF-1, and maybe some of Al Sal’s horse lube.
I had a nice chuckle at the mention of horse lube.
But anywho, the Olympics tend to have much stricter drug testing procedures. So sometimes even the people everyone knows are doping get off the sauce a pre-determined time before the games. (E.g. Lagat, Bernard; circa July-August 2008)
It may look stricter, but these guys won’t be backing off. And none of the super stars will be caught (unless they do something absolutely stupid). They know what they need to take, they are told how to possibly block the substances from tests, and they will be told when to back off of certain things and find good alternatives. Everything is thoroughly researched before the big show, and 90% won’t screw it up.
I believe Lagat’s sub par performances in Beijing were due to injury (calf?). He knows what he’s doing, and has done well in other Olympics. I’m sure he’ll be fully juiced and ready to challenge gold in the 5000 this summer.
It happens. On another note, imagine the outrage if Farah were to be caught at his home games.
Yes, it is true that it happens (obviously), but don’t expect the gold medalist in any of the distance events to be caught, stripped, and suspended from competition every Olympics. It happens from a big screw up on the part of the athlete, coach or trainer.
It would be kind of interesting to see what happens if Farrah tested positive. I’m sure all of that Paula “EPO cheats out” crap wouldn’t help his case.