Predict outdoor times based on sub-4:20 indoors


#1

To me, anyone running under 4:20 indoors says they can challenge 4:11 outdoors.

What do you think?


#2

I concur from an ability/potential standpoint. One of the better opportunities might be Distance Night Palatine. An opportunity for the top runners to go head to head with the sole focus of running fast. This could also happen at Myrhum if the top milers match up. In general the weather limits opportunities during much of the season and then doubling or tripling at state combined with the often hot and windy weather make it hard to run super fast.

Regarding State, are we going to see the 9ish min guys get after it in the 3200 Friday night? Or will they hold back a little with the 1600 looming the next day? Will a pursuit of the state record in the 3200 hinder them in the 1600 on Saturday?

A guy like Chapman will probably run 3 events at State?


#3

Moehn went 4:09.76-1:52.16-9:15.12 during state weekend which is about the best ever 1600-800 Day 1/3200 Day 2 combo. Jennings 9:20-4:12-1:54 and Hirsch 9:09-4:13-1:53 compare also from D1.

At this point I think Chapman could go 9:03-4:14-1:56 with the 1:56 being high and based on talent. We’ve seen nothing that indicates anything faster yet. Giving him a 4:14 is basically an assumption too if he didnt spend everything on a big indoor season. Great 2-miler indeed but he’ll need a few more badges of honor before he is ready for the triple.


#4

I was thinking maybe 4x8?


#5

Your coaching senses will exceed my armchair quarterbacking any day. I know East Troy has a decent support cast so why not? He’d then open with the 4x8 and 3200 on Day 1 followed by 1600 Day 2? Hopefully dont have my schedules mixed up.


#6

Predicting outdoor times based on indoor performances without background knowledge is rather useless. Speaking from my personal experience, when I had Kyle Warras as a sophomore run 4:20.08 indoors at TFA, I had numerous people ask how fast I thought he could go. Truth is, he came into the season doing ~8 weeks of interval work on his own equivalent to a college indoor program. I had to coach him very differently. He in a perfectly split race, was a 4:16 athlete that year (decided to follow Wardall at state, 28x first 200 instead of the advised John Simons.) It’s too bad he traded in his spikes for bike tires after his sophomore year. Point being, so many variables come in to predicting what an athlete is capable of based off of indoor performances.