Olympic Trials Who Goes Where Thread?


#1

So many questions, so little time.

We know Andrews is doubling perhaps with an emphasis on the 800.

We do not know what Lomong will run.

We assume Rupp will double.

What will Ritz do?

Is Dix injured - he has pulled out of several meets and appeared to pull up at Pre at the end of the 100.

I propose (and have posted :slight_smile: ) a thread for discussion and questions in regards to things of this nature. Back up for info provided would be awesome.

Tegenkamp appears to have set his laser focus on the 10: http://www.flotrack.org/article/12728-The-Next-Chapter-For-Matt-Tegenkamp

I imagine if he doesn’t make the team he’ll double back.

What will Felix do. Personally I hope she runs just the 200.

Feel free to discuss picks for the team based on form too is you so please.


#2

Torrence is another athlete, that like Lomong, has not yet decided between the 1500 and 5k and could potentially make the team in either event.


#3

KingCoe, I feel as if Felix will double because of the fact that she did so at Worlds last year. I recall an interview somewhere, maybe on TV actually, where she said doubling last year was building towards the future.

I am curious as to whether the Florida boys (Claye, Taylor) will do both LJ and TJ or just do triple jump.

I feel as if because of how great he has run the 1500/mile this year, that would be his choice. It’s at least a harder choice than Lomong would conceivably have.


#4

jpac - I too, think Felix might double but if she does I wonder if she might go back to a 100/200 double. Her 10.92 100 PR this year is a good sign for her very openly stated goal of an Olympic Gold in the 200.

When she ran her previous 100 PR in 2008 of 10.93 she ran 21.93 in the 200.
She ran 11.08 in 2009 and ran her 200 PR of 21.88.

Last year she concentrated on the 400 and ran NO 100 meter races. Her 200 best: 22.32!

Her 200/ 400 double last year yielded questionable results for an athlete with her goals and she has run ZERO 400s thus far this year.

I do not see any way she grabs gold in the 100 and again for an athlete of her goals, I don’t see why she would waste one ounce of energy in the 100 thus hurting her in what will ineviatably be another battle with VCB in the 200 (with Jeter too I imagine) in chasing a silver or bronze. She wants an Olympic Gold that wasn’t part of a relay same as Sanya.

I’d love to see her “settle” for 3 golds: 4x100, 4x400 and 200.

Don’t get me wrong, I’d love to see Felix, Richards-Ross, Montsho, Williams-Mills, McCorory, Ohuruogu, this year’s Russian and someone else (Whyte another Russian) line up all in top form.

I just have a hunch it ain’t gonna happen.

Based on Torrence and Lomong’s Pre races I’m thinking Torrence goes 1500 and Lomong goes 5000.


#5

Furthermore, the 1500m window is WIDE open, and again one can assume that Rupp & Lagat will make the 5k squad, which leaves only one spot for Ritz, Teg, Lomong, True, Bumbi, et al. While the 1500m has the big names as well, they (obviously enough) have been running like crap.


#6

It suddenly just hit me: what has Lagat done this outdoor season?

He ran at Penn and didn’t look that good if memory serves.
Number of 5000 races? Zero
Number of 1500 races? Zero
Miles - I assume we all just saw him finish Pre in 14th???

Certainly he won the World Indoor 3000 but since then?

Could the wheels finally be coming off? Can you imagine the shock of some guy placing in the top 3 in the 5000 denying Lagat of a spot???

Not sayin’ it’s going to happen, but just sayin’ it suddenly hit me that if Lagat was Manzano, Wheating, Centrowitz or Webb apparently there would be many threads wondering what was going on with him based upon this season.

Apparently we will learn more about him in New York as well.


#7

Huh?

He’ll probably just do some pre-Olympic ‘preparation’ in Spain again, and get it all sorted.


#8

The interview link in the OP had Matt saying he was just doing the 10k. Ben True may or may not run the 10k instead as well, since he’s one of a few with the A standard.

I think Lagat will be just fine. 3:54 for someone with the endurance he has is fine, especially in a race with that much traffic & poor splits. Dude IS ancient though, so racing sparingly has to be better for his old man joints. Go to Spain for that Glucosamine maybe?


#9

I’ll bank on True not being a factor in the 10k. Tegenkamp focusing on the 10k definitely throws a wrench into things. It definitely threw off pretty much every prediction I made a few weeks ago concerning the 10k (other than Rupp taking first).

Go to Spain for that Glucosamine maybe?

Sure let’s call it that.


#10

What I would do if I were them and why, in no particular order:[LIST]
[]Torrence - 1500. Agree that Rupp and Lagat take two spots, leaving a dogfight between about five guys for the last spot in the 5. The 15 has turned into a war of attrition with none of the favorites (Centro, Wheating, Manzano, etc.) showing much right now. The environment is ripe for someone like Torrence who’s managed to stay healthy and run well to steal a spot. I could see Torrence and Andrews taking two of the three spots at 15.
[
]Lomong - 5000. He simply walked away from everyone in the last 600 or so and ran 13:11 despite miscounting the laps at Cardinal. I see no one outside of Lagat and Rupp who could’ve produced that performance. Despite that race and a 1:46, his Pre mile was pretty average (seems like everyone ran slower than anticipated at Pre, actually) and I don’t believe he’s ever dominated a national 1500 field the way he dominated the 5000 field at Cardinal. A 5 team of Lomong, Rupp and He Whose Name Must Not Be Spoken would be one helluva trio.
[]Andrews - Double, 8/15. Totally agree with king that Andrews looks to be the favorite at 1500 on paper right now. I have said dozens of times that ordinarily you don’t have to PR or run out of your head to win a title or make an Oly team; more commonly, you just have to make it to the line fit and healthy and perform up to par because tons of guys will shoot themselves in the foot trying to do something other-worldly. No better example of that than the 1500 this year and Andrews. Yes, I know he ran a big 1500 PR, but that was one of those PRs you knew he had in him but he just hadn’t run yet. He’s healthy and ready run. If he makes both teams, he might as well run both in London. You can never get too much experience running rounds or running in the Olys and his medal chances are slim, so it’s not like he’s hurting his medal chances in the 15 by running the 8 first.
[
]Teg - Enter both 5 & 10, but probably drop the 5 if he makes the 10 team first. I could very well see Teg not making this team.
[*]Ritz - No choice but to enter both. Only drop the 5 if he gets top-3 in the 10 AND runs 27:44.99 or better at the Trials. If he doesn’t both finish top-3 and get the “A” in the 10, he has no choice but to run the 5 and join the dogfight for the third spot behind Rupp and He Whose Name Must Not Be Spoken. If Lomong opts for the 5 only, Ritz is probably screwed all the way around.[/LIST]My picks to make the team in no particular order of finish as of today (6/5/2012):

800: Symmonds, Andrews, and who cares after that.
1500: Andrews, Torrence and . . . sheesh . . . Leo, maybe? Could also see Leo, Andrews and Centro possibly.
5000: Rupp, Lomong and He Whose Name Must Not Be Spoken
10,000: Rupp, have to think about it some more after that.


#11

Yup. Sadly, he’ll be in fine form come the Trials.


#12

sadly…are we all off the lagat fan bus totally now? = /


#13

early predictions on 6/5/12…subject to change

800: Symmonds, Andrews, Mulder (Solomon, Martin, Jock in the mix)
1500: Andrews, Torrence, Manzano (Centro, Lagat, Wheating in the mix)
5000: Rupp, Lomong, Lagat (clusterf*** after that but i like lagat for now)
10000: Rupp, Ritz, Teg (for now)
3000sc: Cabral, Jager, Alcorn (Huling, Forys on the outside)


#14

While I would normally also put money on Andrews and the 15, is he fit enough to run that many races (6?) and show up in each?

I know he’s progressed a lot since then, but remember his 800 at US Champs last year? It was god awful. He was tired, and it showed. The NCAA season definitely played a factor, but I’m sure the rounds didn’t help any. That’s why I’m still hesitant to cast my card in the Andrews lot just yet (for the 1500).


#15

All true.

But that’s true of just about everybody in the 1500 field this year, or so it seems. Given that, I’ll cast my lot with the guy who (1) has been healthy, (2) is starting his season later than last year and (3) has the fastest seasonal time of the field so far this year as being able to weather the rounds. The 8/15 rounds are pretty nicely spaced, and the young 'uns like Andrews tend to recover faster anyway.


#16

Andrews ran a low key 800 this past weekend, in NJ

Closed in 25 low to flat in a 1:50.8 effort

We will see how far he has come this year, this Saturday against Rudisha, there will be no where to hide going out slow, the gap will be really noticeable

You figure Rudisha looking for 50.00 out at a minimum, would be nice to see Andrews on the edge for once

53/53 ain;t cutting it there or 52/54


#17

I was never on it. Ever.


#18

Agree.

For Andrews to transition to the next level, he’s going to have to lay it on the line the first 400 far more than he’s ever done.

The days of being 25m down with 200 go and still being able to win are now nothing more than a pleasant memory.

And that would have been good for Webb to have been in as well.


#19

No it would not have been good for Webb to be in

He could barely cover 57 out in a mile without falling back, this would just look worse and be deflating

Even if he ran 1:48 which I still see as unlikely, it would look like he was a straighaway behind, even though that would not be the actual case.


#20

[LEFT]ANDREWS Robby
03/29/1991
USA
1:44.71
1:47.11
DE SOUZA Diomar
08/24/1989
BRA
1:45.62
1:45.62
KAKI Abubaker
06/21/1989
SUD
1:42.23
1:43.71
LALANG Boaz Kiplagat
02/08/1989
KEN
1:42.95
1:47.92
OSAGIE Andrew
02/19/1988
GBR
1:44.64
1:44.64
RUDISHA David
12/17/1988
KEN
1:41.01
1:43.10
RUTT Michael
10/28/1987
USA
1:46.24
1:46.24
SCHERER Matthew
11/21/1983
USA
1:46.11

YEGO Alfred Kirwa
11/28/1986
KEN
1:42.67
1:46.46[/LEFT]