Monaco DL


#1

Well I was going to go through and list all the events/names I was excited about, then realized that it was pretty much everyone in the guy’s 400 and up. So here are those start lists

Oliver, Merritt, and Richardson in the hurdles as well. Really curious to see how Jager does in a race with the big boys.


#2

Love all those fields. Notes:

Interesting that Silas and Asbel seem to be avoiding each other a bit. Should be a good test for our American squad too. Laalou is always one to watch as well.

800: Let’s see if Kaki’s 1:46 the other day was a fluke. We’ll see if Kosencha is back on form as well, still disappointed he didn’t make the Kenyan team.

400: Wow. This one could contain all 3 medalists. In no order James, Merritt, K. Borlee and Santos all must be thinking about metal . . . too bad no McQuay.

Semenya and Montano in the 800.

Nice men’s long jump too with Watt, Bayer, Goodwin, Mokoena, Rutherford and Saladino who is trying to get back in there.


#3

Unfortunately, I am not sure this meet is going to help the American momentum at 800m and up going into the Games. Hopefully we don’t get destroyed among these mid-level elite fields.

400m
Lawshawn Merritt and his predecessor, Jeremy Wariner, will represent the US fairly well here. Merritt will likely win in 44.1-44.2. Wariner has enough talent that he can pull of a 2nd-4th place finish in 44.8 or so.

Prediction: Merritt, 44.1 FTW and Wariner 44.8 for 3rd.

800m
Nick Symmonds owes it to his country to clean up his act some and just stick to racing. He needs to be quiet. No media ploys or publicity stunts, forget what Ian Stewart did and so on. He can run his low-1:44 with a closed yap. Duane Solomon will be not too far behind him and I haven’t heard much about the other guy.

Prediction: Symmonds 1:44.1 for 2nd or 3rd, Solomon 1:44.5 middle of the pack and Scherer, who knows…probably DFL.

1500m
With Leo, Centro and Wheating all in the 1500m, we will become awfully transparent to the rest of the world at that distance. In an ideal world we’d get 3 sub-3:36s or three top 6 finishes and call it a overall victory. Robby Andrews will eat another cheeseburger in last but will close in 52 to salvage a 3:39.

Prediction: Wheating 3:34, Centro 3:35, Andrews 3:39, Leo DFL. Places will be 5-6th place at best.

3000m Steeplechase
Jager shows so much promise as a runner. I hope he can get in another 8:17 or better. I am not sure if steepling is his best event, but tis the only event he could represent the US in London.

Prediction: Jager…8:17 or a slight shave off his PR in 8:15-8:16.


#4

I agree. I bet he goes out in something ridiculous like 49.xx, then just steps off the track as he ties up and starts getting passed. :smiley:


#5

I take it he’s the rabbit. I did not know that.


#6

Scherer has been the rabbit in just about everything he’s entered for almost 2 years now, i think. Damn good rabbit too.


#7

I’m surprised you can make comments on all these folks but not know Scherer. He’s been in more high level international races as the rabbit than these other middle distance guys have even run (minus Manzano and Symmonds).

He was a very solid non rabbit in his day too. “Converted” 400 guy although the conversion wasn’t hugely successful.

2004 … 45.95
2005 … 45.70
2006 … 45.19
2007 … 1:47.08
2008 … 1:46.11
2009 … 1:46.53
2010 … 1:46.71

I’m fascinated by your Wariner prediction. He has been locked in the low 45s since his season’s best back in April of 44.96 - why do you think he’ll pick up the pace now? As for 2nd (I know you said 2nd to 4th) how do you see him beating the World Champ or Santos (who has run 44.45 and several other sub 45s) or Borlee, who has been very consistent and ran a massive PR this year. I suppose Santos does have a decent number of races under his belt including World Juniors (which he won) and beating Borlee certainly wouldn’t be a shock but what has Wariner done this year to instill such faith in you. I thought his season looked good after running 44.96 in April but he has pretty much pooped his pants quality wise ever since (as compared to earlier versions of himself).

I’ll be sorely disappointed with an 8:17 for Jager. I’m hoping at least 8:15.

1:44.5 for Solomon would be staggeringly good. Number of times Duane has run sub 1:45 - once. His last five seasons have been:

1:45.86, 1:45.23, 1:46.82, 1:45.71 and 1:45.69. I hope you are right. I’m just worried his Olympic Trials 3rd was a Christian Smith kind of thing. He ran with real conviction and emotion though. I look forward to being proven wrong.

3:34-5 for Wheating and Centrowitz hopefully would be a good sign albeit not great. Hopefully Centro can even do a little better (not that I have any reason to believe he can other than last year sadly) I hope you are right here, too. Any news on Wheatings foot?


#8

To be honest, I’ve seen his name in passing but it never triggered any memories for me. I was just trying to throw some bold predictions out there to stimulate discussion.

I know the prediction is out there but I see the 43.45 next to his name and just want to believe something of that nature still exists.

I think Jager put together a very nice final at the Trials. However, I believe him to be one of those athletes that performs well when he is in the hunt to win. Put him in a race against others of his caliber and his enthusiasm dies a bit when he’s not in the lead. You think the race winner will get under 8:10? Hopefully Jager can get pulled along.

I am slightly optimistic that he’ll post a near career-best here. Khadevis is probably the better bet for a 1:44.5 than Solomon. I just hope the Americans can go out there and run with some heart. Enough of the humiliation at 800m and above.

I am with you on this one. We have the 1500m talent it’s just we let things get away from us on the international scene. We’re right there collectively minus one or two moves in a given race. The one thing I like about Centrowitz is his responsiveness during the middle portions of the race. At the trials, there was hardly a split second that he wasn’t in the top three. Every time someone made a move, he reasserted himself and moved right back up to the front. Centrowitz gives me a lot of hope in that regard. Wheating is by far the premier talent of the USA group. He can do it he just has to stay in the race and remember this isn’t an NCAA final or the Olympic Trials anymore. The sit and kick stuff can only take you so far.


#9

Re: Wariner. LOL. I get it, when you are shooting for a time almost a second and a half slower than your best in a one lap race you should hope it’s still there, huh?

Re: Jager. I don’t know enough about him to comment on his mental tenacity. With Koech and Mateelong in the race I certainly would be shocked to see the winner over 8:10. 3 other guys sub 8:10 this season in the field. I expect a standard Kenyafest. Hopefully Jager will go in with the right mentality of “Ok, this is my first SERIOUS steeple. I’m probably going to get blown out at some point so I just need to stick with it.”

I remember reading an interview with Lincoln after his steeple AR and he almost mentally gave up in his AR race simply because he was getting crushed early on and it just felt so fast. He managed to calm down, stick with it and finished solid. This is what Jager will have to do.

I’m not sure we have had the international talent in the 1500 until recently and even so Wheating, Centrowitz and Manzano are outside talents at this point.

Wheating has health concerns and even his 3:30.90 shocker came in 4th place (behind Kiplagat, Laalou and Choge). Internationally he is still seriously green. If he can stay healthy though I think he is a potential force. Unfortunately though some predicted his 3:30.90 run might never be matched when he ran it (Ortho perhaps?) and so far that seems very potentially true - mainly due to the fact he can’t stay healthy. Truly a crime as I think he is great and I have only sympathy and support for him. Must be driving him crazy to have his body hold him back. I know only too well what that is like.

Centrowitz ran PERFECTLY last year as far as I’m concerned. He was tactically perfect and won NCAA, US Champs and medaled in his first international champs . . . that’s perfect.

Manzano has had some great one off performances and has proven he can at least be a make the final but he needs the GOOD, GOOD LEO to show up at the right time. If he is positioned right with 100m to go though . . .


#10

Heart. Right…


#11

I suggest a board be created specifically for this guy and fanya to make uninformed, wildly emotional “predictions”.


#12

just predict.


#13

Holy hell zen there is so much in these posts to prove you are incredibly ill-informed, stupid, or both. Lets have some fun shall we.

wariner has shown absolutely zero indications he can beat anyone in this field except for the czech, im predicting he gets 7th and gets torched by the field in doing so.

To not know that matt scherer is an international class rabbit who has done multiple diamond league meets and other elite level competitions (millrose) is just ignorant for someone who claims to have your knowledge of the sport.

Assuming this field goes with the rabbits (monaco has a pretty good record of that in the past), if andrews closes in 52 on the last lap, he will be more like 331, not 339. Also i would be stunned to see leo get last two races in a row.

if by bold predictions, you mean moronic and ill-informed one that border on trolling, then yes, that is exactly what you did.

I suppose you think bernard lagat can run 326 or thereabouts as well these days?

Considering Koech and mateelong have already run under 8:00 this year, i think it is a pretty safe bet to say this race will be won with under an 8:10.


#14

Get over yourself :rolleyes:

I don’t think Bernard can run that fast at all. He raced a 3:54 last week and was pleased with his performance. Some mental math gives us what… a high-3:36 for that? Age has caught up to him there so I’d probably think 3:35 or 3:34 at best if he fine tuned himself this year. Despite lacking at the 1500m I wouldn’t put it past him to be under 12:55 in an all out effort for the 5000. For the Games I think he’s got the best chance to medal of any of the Americans 800m and above as he’s a serious threat in the tactical races.


#15

Who are other world class-rabbits that I should know about? I guess I never really thought to pay attention to rabbits.


#16

Wariner has run under 44.50, like, thrice in the past four seasons (Paris 44.49 Split and Zurich 2010).

I don’t think Bernard can run that fast at all. He raced a 3:54 last week and was pleased with his performance. Some mental math gives us what… a high-3:36 for that? Age has caught up to him there so I’d probably think 3:35 or 3:34 at best if he fine tuned himself this year.

…above as he’s a serious threat in the tactical races.

So, you think a guy who has run 3:34 closing down in 39low (and walking down a 3:30 guy in the process) might be capable of a 3:34 this season? Truly a bold statement.

As opposed to the races that employ no tactics.


#17

well sammy tangui is normally the personal rabbit for rudisha, KD did some rabbitting duties last year (although not this year).


#18

Since retired, but Krummenacker has to be mentioned as one of the best ever.

Also worth knowing about rabbits Tim Byers (1981 Bislett 1500) and Paul Pilkington (1994 LA marathon) who famously won their respective races.


#19

William Tanui is my favorite rabbit. He really puts the hammer down in the 5th furlong, particularly on the backstraight, of El Guerrouj’s 3:43. I suppose it helped that he had run 3:30 2 summers previous.


#20

i was just thinking of current rabbits, krumm was absolutely one of the best. Also that 81 bislett video is hilarious to watch, particularly ovett after the race.