Mock Beloit Memorial Sectional


#1

Competing Teams:

[indent] Beloit Memorial
Elkhorn Area
Fort Atkinson
Janesville Craig
Janesville Parker
Kettle Moraine
Madison La Follette
Milton
Monona Grove
Oconomowoc
Sun Prairie
Watertown
[/indent]

Disclaimer:

There has been a lot of speculation about this upcoming meet. So I ran a mock meet using each team’s conference results. I made one major assumption that all courses were equal and ignored the obvious margin of error involved with that. Below are the results.

Mock Meet:

Individual Results

====================================================================================
Pl  Name                              Cl  School                            Time
====================================================================================
 1  Finn Gessner                      12  Madison La Follette               15:04
 2  Nate Farrell                      12  Janesville Craig                  15:53
 3  Brian Jacques                     12  Oconomowoc                        15:55
 4  Justin Hodges                     12  Sun Prairie                       15:56
 5  Josh Freitag                      11  Madison La Follette               16:01
 6  Billy Kitzhaber                   11  Watertown                         16:17
 7  Joseph Kehoe                      11  Sun Prairie                       16:21
 8  Charlie Ellenbecker               11  Monona Grove                      16:29
 9  James Giftos                      10  Monona Grove                      16:37
10  Reed Anderson                     10  Monona Grove                      16:45
11  Alexander Vance                   09  Oconomowoc                        16:45
12  Alexander Carter                  12  Oconomowoc                        16:57
13  Andrew Muskevitsch                11  Oconomowoc                        16:58
14  Ben Schmied                       11  Watertown                         17:00
15  Miles Mulder                      10  Oconomowoc                        17:02
16  Matt Rodenkirch                   11  Sun Prairie                       17:03
17  Caleb Hembree                     11  Elkhorn Area                      17:07
18  Tyler Sloan                       12  Sun Prairie                       17:07
19  Parker Ellis                      12  Oconomowoc                        17:07
20  Joe Cooper                        12  Janesville Craig                  17:09
21  Aaron Leverson                    10  Janesville Craig                  17:09
22  Ian Franczek                      11  Madison La Follette               17:14
23  Eddie Gnewuch                     10  Monona Grove                      17:14
24  Noah O'Neill                      12  Sun Prairie                       17:17
25  Smith Mayse                       11  Beloit Memorial                   17:18
26  Gage Hunter                       11  Monona Grove                      17:22
27  Travis Luterbach                  12  Kettle Moraine                    17:23
28  Tyler Brown                       11  Janesville Craig                  17:25
29  Noah Krueger                      12  Milton                            17:29
30  Tyler King                        12  Sun Prairie                       17:30
31  Matt Ryan                         11  Kettle Moraine                    17:30
32  Derek Davey                       11  Elkhorn Area                      17:31
33  Kamden Midtlien                   10  Fort Atkinson                     17:36
34  Espen Adams                       11  Madison La Follette               17:37
35  Alex Wolfe                        11  Madison La Follette               17:39
36  Adam Tess                         10  Sun Prairie                       17:43
37  Fabian Cuahutle-Gar               10  Kettle Moraine                    17:44
38  William Ullrich                   12  Oconomowoc                        17:45
39  Eric Neuwirth                     11  Kettle Moraine                    17:49
40  Carlos Gatica                     10  Monona Grove                      17:51
41  Garrett Radtke                    11  Watertown                         17:51
42  Blake McCann                      11  Janesville Craig                  17:55
43  Zander Arena                      10  Janesville Craig                  17:55
44  Sam DiVarco                       12  Elkhorn Area                      17:57
45  Gabe Gromowski                    11  Watertown                         17:57
46  Miles Wackett                     12  Watertown                         17:58
47  Alex Krause                       11  Monona Grove                      17:59
48  Izak Jensen                       09  Watertown                         17:59
49  Arandu Huerta                     12  Elkhorn Area                      18:01
50  Matthias Burrie                   11  Kettle Moraine                    18:01
51  Chris Wolfe                       09  Madison La Follette               18:05
52  Michael Leary                     11  Fort Atkinson                     18:07
53  Keegan Little                     12  Janesville Parker                 18:09
54  Mitchell Lorenz                   12  Janesville Craig                  18:12
55  Cameron Pumilia                   12  Milton                            18:12
56  Derek Vaillancourt                11  Fort Atkinson                     18:19
57  Phil Selmer                       12  Beloit Memorial                   18:21
58  Peyton Meyer                      10  Janesville Parker                 18:22
59  Noah Jeseritz                     10  Watertown                         18:26
60  Erik Hovila                       11  Kettle Moraine                    18:27
61  Milo Rochester                    11  Madison La Follette               18:28
62  Joe Pachowitz                     11  Kettle Moraine                    18:29
63  Davis Turk                        10  Milton                            18:30
64  Ben Tuescher                      09  Elkhorn Area                      18:40
65  Scott Hartwig                     11  Janesville Parker                 18:40
66  Devin Woodcock                    09  Milton                            18:42
67  Peyton Sanders                    11  Elkhorn Area                      18:48
68  Jacob Snow                        09  Milton                            18:52
69  Benji Peak                        11  Elkhorn Area                      18:57
70  Sebastian Mitchell                11  Fort Atkinson                     18:59
71  Jack Cronin                       11  Beloit Memorial                   19:05
72  Nolan Kraus                       11  Fort Atkinson                     19:06
73  Tyler Vaillancourt                11  Fort Atkinson                     19:07
74  Jeremiah Mansavage                10  Fort Atkinson                     19:11
75  Miles Stuckey                     09  Milton                            19:25
76  Noah Brown                        11  Milton                            19:56
77  Leeland Crum                      11  Beloit Memorial                   20:16
78  Riley McDade                      11  Janesville Parker                 20:44
79  Forrest Morrison                  10  Beloit Memorial                   20:51
80  Gustavo Badillo                   12  Beloit Memorial                   21:09
81  Carsen Diehls                     09  Janesville Parker                 21:43
82  Lukas Laun-Smith                  10  Beloit Memorial                   23:39

Team Results

 54  Oconomowoc
 69  Sun Prairie
 76  Monona Grove
 97  Madison La Follette
113  Janesville Craig
152  Watertown        
184  Kettle Moraine       
206  Elkhorn Area                                          
281  Milton                                          
283  Fort Atkinson                                          
307  Beloit Memorial
333  Janesville Parker

#2

The only wildcard I would infuse into this discussion, is that Beloit is a little bit of a “quirky” and fast course. The Big 8 Teams/Runners all ran here at the conference meet in 2014, so they might hold a slight advantage. I think Oconomowoc has a fairy substantial cushion, but I also wouldnt be the least bit surprised to see SP outkick them, and a LaFollette/Craig team capitalize on their experience and age, and knock Occonomowc out of the second position, as well.

It is an extreme stretch, but a reasonable scenario.

I agree with your previous assessment of MG. Their #4 & #5 just havent been there recently, they over race a bit… I think their young runners may have peaked too early.