re: Expectations high Jamaicans could exceed Beijing haul
With American Walter Dix out with an injury, Tyson Gay not in top form and not even entered in the 200m; I expect the Jamaicans will dominate the men’s short sprints. I think Bolt/Blake will go 1-2 in the 100m and 200m. I doubt Powell will be able to hold off Gatlin and Gay in the 100m, at least one of those athletes will probably finish ahead of him. As long as Jamaica does not drop the stick, they will win the men’s 4x1. Even with a healthy Germaine, I don’t see any medals for Jamaica in the 400m or 4x4. The USA will almost definitely win the 4x4, with the other medals being decided between T&T, Bahamas, Belgium or Great Britain. Obviously this could change if Bolt and/or Blake run on the 4x4. In the 110 and 400 hurdles, getting a one Jamaican male into the finals would be an accomplishment.
The Jamaican ladies will split the medals in the short sprints with the USA. SAFP ran an incredible 10.7 recently, but you can’t have one great race and assume you are going to win the Olympic gold medal. The Olympics will be completely different from a one and done race. SAFP will have to run rounds in 2 events against competition that will force her to work. I would say SAFP is the co-favorite with Jeter. I think VCB will one of the other 2 medals in the 100m. It is a toss-up between Felix and VCB in the 200m, with the other medal in the 200m going to Sanya. Sanya has been running consistently well in 200 and 400; she ran a 22.09 over a month ago into a negative win. It is a toss you between Jamaica and the U.S. in the women’s 4x1. Jamaica has a slight edge if you just go by 100m PRs, but Felix is pretty much a 10.7x sprinter with a running start. 1st and 2nd in the 4x4 will between the U.S. and Russia, with Jamaica holding off Great Britain for 3rd. The 400m medals will be between Sanya, Montsho and the 2 Russian ladies. Even if Mills ran a PR, she is probably not going to finish in the top 3. Foster-Hilton and Spencer both have a shot in the hurdle events; the chances of both athletes medaling are less than 50%.
I don’t see 11 medals; I see 9 at best, most likely 8. Statistically at least one event will have someone not make the finals, or in the finals, false start, drop a baton, hit a hurdle or just have a bad day. You can’t count medals based on what you would like to see happen and you can’t just go by a PR an athlete ran in the ideal Kingston conditions in front of a home crowd.
…just keeping it real.