Jager in Monaco predictions


#1

One popular thought is that he may scare the American Record (8:08.82 by Dan Lincoln in 2006) in the right race. Others suggest not much under 8:20 and current PR.

What do you think? Predict.

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#2

Voted 8:13 … wouldn’t be surprised by an 8:10 or an 8:30 either. Should be hopefully an interesting, invaluable and probably eye-opening experience for him.


#3

Not gonna predict this one. Races like this can drag you one of two places, either great new heights or to the depths of oxygen debt despair. Also his first race off the plane, and those are always a crap shoot.

I’ve always loved malmo’s comment about Hoover races (so named because you can get sucked along to fast times): “That’s thing about Hoovers. Sometimes they suck, and sometimes they blow.” I’d add “especially Hoovers that are the first race off the plane.”

I won’t be surprised by anything between about 8:05 and 8:30.


Monaco DL
#4

While I would never say Jager couldn’t run 8:05 I think it would be exceptionally surprising and staggeringly pleasing.

American Records are always surprising.


#5

Not that flat PRs mean all that much at the steeple, but Jager took to this event very well and very quickly and his flat distance resume (especially for his age) is exceptional. Those are the kinds of things that would make him busting one not be just totally shocking.

Then again, he may blow up, wipe out in the water jump and want a hug from his mother at the finish line.


#6

I’d certainly love a hug from my mother at the finish line.

I hear you. Based upon personal bests he is pretty far ahead of Lincoln in most events.

Lincoln

1500 - 3:37.50
Mile - 3:57.68
3000 - 7:48.49
2 Mile - 8:13.70
5000 - 13:32.27
Steeple - 8:08.82

Jager

1500 - 3:38.33
Mile - 3:54.35
3000 - 7:41.48
5000 - 13:22.18
Steeple - 8:17.40

Marsh and Croghan were pretty much pure steeplers. Croghan had a 1500 best of 3:39 and Marsh was never any great shakes in other events either.

Jager is arguably the most talented American athlete to successfully really go after the steeple other than Tim Broe.


#7

Very ifs and buts, commentary forthcoming:

If Dr. Lincoln had Jager’s schedule when he was 18-25 one would think his PRs would be significantly lower. His 8:08 and 8:13, along with his barely losing to an on-fire Goucher at usa xc in '06 came in the middle of either his first or second year of medical school. That 5k PR was from 2004 and his 3k PR indoor is a significantly better 7:40. Besides the fact that medical school is simply much more demanding of one’s time than part time undergrad, Lincoln really had to pick his spots in 2005 and 2006, thus the slow PRs because he couldn’t really chase times in other events (and in '06 his Achilles was already acting up). Hope these aren’t seen as excuses. Lincoln certainly knew the tradeoffs and only had two years left in him anyways. Plus other runners have done, or are doing, medical school, so it’s not completely unprecedented.

All that said:
Jager is a beast. Pretty remarkable what he’s done over the past two years. He didn’t run a step outside from the USATF 1500m prelim in 2010 until January 2011. Monster talent. Gotta think he’ll scare 8:00 if he stays healthy.


Monaco DL
#8

where was the “smashing the AR by over 2 seconds” option? i totally would have picked that one >.> <.<


#9

As for predictions, look at what malmo (a former steeple AR holder himself) predicted for Jager on LR clear back on April 26 after Jager’s 8:26 debut:

After watching the video I would say that “possibly” is an understatement. Jager isn’t “potentially one heck of a steeplechaser” nor is he “a project”. Jager is the best American steeplechaser I’ve ever seen. He could be giving clinics right now.

For a neophypte he does everything right. It appears that his natural lead leg is his right, but when he leads with his left there’s a slight upper body rotation. Pretty much every steeplechaser who has ever lived does that off the “wrong” leg. He’s got no lapses of confidence going into the barriers, and what I really like most of all, is that if put into the lead he attacks.

It remains to be seen how he does when he runs out near his physical edge, but I have a hunch that 8:05 to 8:10 will be his sweet spot this year.

Needless to say, I’m very impressed.

Does that guy know the event or what?


#10

Some of the immediate coverage and videos including the race itself.

//youtu.be/4KtQJR005yo

[FLOTRACK]http://www.flotrack.org/embed/NjM2NjUwNjQ4?related=1[/FLOTRACK]


#11

Great result from Jager, I did not see this coming at all. I hope he doesn’t get content with his season and he makes a move for a medal at the Olympics. Fantastic result.


#12

Jager on the non-African list:

Bouabdellah Tahri (FRA) … 8:01.18
Mahiedine Mekhissi-Benabbad (FRA) … 8:02.09
Simon Vroemen (NED) … 8:04.95
Mustafa Mohamed (SWE) … 8:05.75
Evan Jager (USA) …


#13

Mustafa Mohamed was born in Somalia


#14

I certainly had a hunch he could have been African but didn’t have time to look it up before I took my cat to the vet.

Bouabdellah Tahri and Mekhissi-Benabbad are also of North African descent, I don’t know if either is naturalized.

Some of you may remember Vroemen from this picture: http://www.simonvroemen.nl/foto.php?type=pic&fid=272

Based on some other google images he is very white.


#15

Coincidentally, I believe that is Mustafa Mohamed in the background.


#16

Jesse Squire blogs
http://tracksuperfan.com/mzungu-in-the-steeplechase


#17

Look, Ortho’s favorite track personalities during the race:


#18

^Nice jorts


#19

Strangely mesmerizing. One of those images you’d really prefer to look away from, but feel compelled to continue your gaze…