I find it interesting to how everyone seems to have forgotten about the defending state champion. He did lay down a 50s win last weekend. That’s a pretty quick improvement since injury he’s made and it’s not October yet. I say with his performance last year, and his talent, as long as he stays healthy he makes it a three person race for the win. He’s my pick if healthy winning with the strongest kick, followed by McCoy for 2nd, and Wunnicke for 3rd.
don’t be so sure, cross is NOT track…these races are never tactical so even if Christianson was healthy he wouldn’t be laying down a 60 flat last 400 for the win or anything like that, he will have to be in it from the start. Will Evans be in perfect form by state? if he is will he do something similar to last year, and take it out incredibly fast? everybody now knows who he is so maybe there will be a big group chasing after him. anyway I don’t see either of the sophmore state champs winning it. It will be a battle between McCoy and Wunnicke and McCoy will outlast Wunnicke I say, Christianson comes in with a strong finish for 3rd followed by Joe Mckenna then Campbell and Evans rounding out the podium. time guesses don’t mean much but I will give it a whirl:
i think the top 6 will be pretty fast and then the times will drop off a bit, I know these are still very fast guesses.
EDIT: yes I think Luterbach’s record will stand, McCoy has a whole nother year to get that, for now he will focus on the win.
I agree that McCarty is a fairly fast course and that is why I was surprised the times weren’t faster. It is not Arrowhead fast because there are more tight turns, but it can be a pr course. The last two years the times have not been very fast at this meet, due at least in part because of warmer than normal weather for October. I thought there would be some sub 16 times, although not having Hirsch or McCasey run changed the upfront strength of the meet.
You are correct that some of the season bests going into this meet were set on questionable courses, but not all of them. Out of the top 26 runners, only 5 people ran season bests, and one of those was Cyra who is just getting back in shape. 9 of the 26 that were not even close to their season bests ran their times at Parkside, a very legit course. For example, Gagne was 28 seconds slower than his Parkside time and Petersson was 30 seconds slower. Campbell was 25 seconds slower than his season best, which admittedly was at Sheridan park, a questionable course. However, he has beaten Hirsch the only time he raced him and he ran a faster time at Kletzsch Park than yesterday, a legit course. Wisconsin Lutheran ran a great race on their home course and not one of their guys ran a pr.
So to make a short post, long, I didn’t think the times were very fast yesterday considering the field, previous season bests and that McCarty is usually a pr type of course.
I was also a little suprised by the slower times at McCarty on Friday. Even with the absence of the Arrowhead Varsity team, Hirsch and McAsey, there were still some excellent upfront runners. I think these are the reasons why times were slower:
It was a wamer 80 degree day with a bit of a wind. Usually it is 60 and dry at this time of the season.
The rain we got 7-10 days ago had the grass thicker than usual. I even thought about having the course cut before race time because McCarty is usually a flat and hard course with long straight-aways and fairly gentle turns.
The field got out fast enough. The 1st mile is always the fastest/easiest mile. I was at the 800 and the leader went through in 2:27 and the mile was about 4:58. Cambell, Gagne and Peterson were leading by that point.
I know that the course was about 5 seconds long for the boys. You would think that after 13 or so years of hosting this meet at McCarty, that the boys and girls finish lines would match up. We measured and lined exactly as we have done in the past, but for some reason the boys finish was too short of the girls finish line. We kept the boys course slightly long.
I dont know all of the reasons why some of the top elite runners didnt race, but I bet that some were resting before the championship trio of conference, sectionals and state. Those are races where you may have to “go to the well” for various individual and team reasons. I’m not sure if the top 5-6 runners at Viking “went to the well” for a faster time. Individually, things were pretty much decided by the 2.5 mile mark.
On a slightly different note, if you check the results from the Midwest Invite going back over the past 5-7 years, things have gotten progressively faster at that meet. It is not because the course is short. That golf course combined with a very dry summer and early fall, combined with some of the best runners and teams duking it out to the end makes it fast.
Does anyone know where Grey Davis (Lakeside Lutheran) has been racing as of late. WisconsinXC has him ranked #9 individually in D2 with a season pr of 15:39, but in his individual profile I only see a 16:53 for 2011. What recent meets am I not seeing from him?
I am not sure of recent times from him, but on wisconsinxc.com lifetime pr’s are listed, not just this year. So I don’t think Grey has run 15:39 this year. He did the same think with Woodford, listing his time in the rankings at 15:39 early in the season, even though he hadn’t broken 16 this season. Personally I think the rankings should just list their seasonal best, since so much can change from year to year.