Things that jump out
800: Rudisha vs. Kaki
100: Gay vs. Blake again (Gay aiming for 9.6x)
1500: stacked…Kiprop returns vs. Choge, Gebremehdin(3:31 PB Berlin), Laalou, Manzano(time for a 3:32?) and Gregson in there too
400mH: Jackson, Taylor and Culson
Steeple: Koech vs. Benahbbad, Huling gives it another shot
W800: Semenya, Savinova, Alysia Johnson, Jepkosgei
W100H: Lopes-Scliep vs. Lolo vs. Pearson
W5000: Whole gang minus T. Dibaba
So no 10,000 at Brussels this year?
That means that Solinsky will very likely rank #1 in the world. He won the fastest 10,000 of the year and has the best mark in the world.
And look for Rupp to rank as well. Fourth in the fastest race of the year and the #4 mark in the world.
I see some new WRs! M 100m with Gay, M 800m with David, W 800m with Caster perhaps? Jeez, any of these races!!
Trollin’? Rudisha is probably the only one better than a 20:1 shot.
I wasn’t intending to. idk gay isn’t that far off. i guess semenya isn’t as close as i thought. same goes with felix. so yeah…we’ll just call that trolling not be being dumb.
Gay is that far off
I think Gay’s legs would actually fall off if he ran faster than 9.58, I just don’t think his body is ready for that although if anybody’s will has the ability to push his body past its limit to the point of legs falling off its Gay.
That said, a PR wouldn’t surprise me but 9.69 is nothing to sneeze at so missing it by a bunch wouldn’t surprise me either.
Rudisha taking down his record wouldn’t surprise me although again he just ran 1:41.09 so give the guy a break. Kaki didn’t look like a man ready to break 1:42 in his last race and may be past his peak. Hopefully I’m wrong and we’ll see a barrier broken with two men going under 1:42 . . . they are going to need a barnburner first lap and then a gut busting 3rd 200.
Semenya against some of the years best is sweet but again Johnson may be out of steam unfortunately based on that last performance. Lets hope not as if she is and she does poorly that could really hurt her in the rankings. And Semenya still has quite a ways I think before she hits last years form. Maybe by Commonwealth Games.
Okay well am I that far off in saying that there are a lot of WR capable individuals in the meet? I guess not capable in Brussels or even this year, but eventually? Throw me a bone and say I’m not that dumb!
LOL. You are not that dumb - just a little excited about some great individuals and fields.
Anyway, its a message board, its about opinion. Nobody knows what will happen in Brussels even though many would tell you they do.
WR capable individuals:
M100 - With an amazing reaction and perfect first 30m and a 2.0 wind at his back: Gay. Blake is one to watch in the next two years - he’s made huge strides this year and is still awfully young.
M800 - you called this one. Rudisha and Kaki in the right race I think are both threats.
M1500 - I’d love to see Kiprop in a well paced race set up targeting around 3:28.50 to 3:29.00 - the guy has run 1:43.17 and anyone who saw his 3:48.50 in Eugene last year knows he can run faster than what he has shown. He just needs the right race where he can keep his long legs a movin’. Once he breaks 3:30 I think he’d keep going lower. Laalou is interesting too. A relative newbie to the 1500/ mile ran 3:31 last year and then broke out a 3:29.53 in Monaco. This is a guy who has run in the 1:43s in 5 seperate years and is still only 28 so who knows? I love a big question mark personally. How much more does he have??
M400 - Jackson says he’s targeting sub 47 and sure looks like he could pull it off this year. His finishes have been stellar. Culson and Gordon will be ones to watch the next two years too. And Angelo Taylor just can’t ever be counted out, probably past it but wasn’t he past it in '08 too?? The guy is still running 200 PRs this year for goodness sake.
MPV - Hooker but not this year.
W800 - Semenya like you said but too much has happened this year.
W100H - Jones if she can return to '08 form.
WHJ - Vlasic: anytime she shows up it could happen.
As great as it would be for Solinsky to rank #1 in the world, it really should be Wilson Kiprop. Won the Kenyan champs in 27:26, then the African champs in 27:32, both at 5000+ft of elevation.
the mens 100m should be good, it’s not any of the big three but i still think blake could challenge gay, also dexter lee is competing, racing against the big boys now, he’s got a 10.16 to his name so hopefully he’ll pb with a 10.0x, there’ll be better copetition than anywhere he’s ever raced before and after all he’s only 19…
Kiprop is at oldest, according to Kenyan authorities, 22 I think. I recall he was junior XC champion in 2007. It’s pretty amazing that he has not broken 3:30 yet, considering how good he is compared to his contemporaries. It seems like he’s missed every 3:30 or faster race in the past couple years(granted you can probably count those on one hand). He’s got a chance here if the pacemaking is good, and he’s not too rusty (last race Gateshead? it’s been a while). I agree with kingcoe’s analysis on Gay. I think 9.6x is possible if he gets the start right and gets a tailwind. Remember that in London it was crappy sprints weather and not a favorable wind. His start was well above average, but he’s put in a ton of work there so maybe he will be able to do that more consistently. Blake’s a big threat IF the starts are close, they weren’t last time ,but they could be here. The last 50 meters they’re both equally great, Gay and Blake.
It could well be Kiprop, you’re correct. Raw marks are the least important factor in the world rankings (titles and head-to-head competition being the most important).
It would be hard to argue that the winner of both the Kenyan Champs and African Champs isn’t the best 10,000 runner in the world in a year with no major international championships and no major European circuit 10,000s.
Anyway you cut it a WORLD ranking of number 1 in any event based upon one race other than a walk or the marathon is hugely disappointing UNLESS the majority of all top other rankers were in the race and no other likely rankers exist.
Not that it will be the fault of whoever is number 1 but you have to admit its sort of silly.
Agreed, but there simply weren’t any significant international 10,000s this year. None. Probably largely a matter of economics. The ten takes a long time to run, and with no record-breakers on the horizon, meets put their resources into other events.
Not to quibble over semantics, but the African Championships is certainly a significant “international 10,000”.
I wonder how Farah’s Euro win will be weighted. The field certainly wasn’t top-notch, but even in a year this thin, it would be odd to see all rankings go to folks who were in Palo Alto and Nairobi.
If Gay hits 9.6x, that will be huge. Matching or bettering his PR in an off year in a race that, arguably, doesn’t matter, means he’s faster than I thought. If he hits 9.6x this year, the 2012 100 final will be insane. 9.6x this year opens the door to 9.6low at the WCs. I would say he AND Bolt could be sub 9.6 in London with the right conditions, but I’m cautious because he will be 30 and at that age injuries and power/reaction time will almost certainly be an issue.
I don’t even want to think about the 800.
Wait. Did Wheating already call it a season?
Gay’s not in the big three?