And 159th place is


#1

I managed to finish up a full prediction of the State meet a couple days earlier than I expected to, and I think this may be my best set of predictions yet simply because I think I managed to capture the true unpredictability of the State Meet. That said, I am warning you all that there will be suprising and very unexepected results contained within these predictions and many of you will think I’m nuts with some of these picks (as you usually do when I do this, I’m sure). The results even turned out much more different that I expected, and while I don’t necessarily agree with all my predictions, I do not feel justified in changing anything because once examined, it all does make sense (to me). Two things in particular will likely catch your attention (you won’t need to look hard to see what that will be), and to those, I will say in advance that I don’t even calculate team results until after I have placed and scored each individual runner, which I place based soley on a runner-vs-runner basis (as in, place each runner between the best runner I think they will beat and the worst runner that I don’t think they will beat).

Out of respect for those also predicting State results for the TrackTalk polls, I will wait to post my full results until later tonight after Borgy posts the polls both so I won’t influence other opinions, and also to give precedence to the TT polls since they are a collaborative and representative effort between us all.

Also, since I am finished so early, and it turns out that I don’t have much school work this week, who would be in favor of me doing girls predictions as well?


#2

Go for it. I know I’m not the only one on this site interested in the girls competition.


#3

Please run the girls predictions… Looking forward to seeing the boys!


#4

Do it up.


#5

Girls predictions would be awesome to see!


#6

Also please place Maria where you think she’ll place in the guys competition.


#7

I won’t quite do that, but if I were to say that her time was 16:55 (basically a converted 13:30 4k time), and factoring in that she would actually have some competition, you can place her yourself…

…looks to me like she would be between 80th and 90th place…


#8

I don’t think she’d be sub 17. I am thinking roughly around 17:25-17:35.
Sub-17 is an elite time in the nation on any 5k course for a girl. I actually do think Hauger could be a top12 girl in the nation though, but I don’t think many girls would be able to run sub17 at the course.


#9

The only reason I wouldn’t put her sub 17 is because of the state course.


#10

She’s already run low 17’s in road races in the summer. Don’t you think she would be able to run sub-17 after a full season of training and racing if she were being pushed?


#11

So where is the list?


#12

Here (split into two posts because it is too long)…

1 Josh Thorson, 12 15:28.4 Wayzata
2 1 Cole O’Brien, 12 15:33.0 Burnsville
3 Jan Ketterson, 12 15:41.0 Bloomington Jefferson
4 Connor Olson, 9 15:43.7 Wayzata
5 2 Glen Ellingson, 12 15:46.5 Moorhead
6 3 Riley Macon, 12 15:48.3 Rochester Mayo
7 Joey Duerr, 9 15:49.4 Chaska
8 4 Will Burke, 11 15:55.1 Edina
9 Jensen Orlow, 12 15:56.0 Holy Family Catholic
10 Mubarik Musa, 12 15:59.0 Worthington
11 John Klecker, 12 15:59.4 Hopkins
12 5 Joel Reichow, 12 16:00.0 White Bear Lake
13 Ahmed Bule, 11 16:01.0 St. Paul Central
14 6 Zach Roozen, 12 16:01.3 Mounds View
15 Luke McKenzie 12 16:03.2 Chisago Lakes
16 7 Eric Colvin, 11 16:05.0 Stillwater
17 Sidney Speir, 11 16:05.3 Eagan
18 8 Tom Linner, 12 16:08.0 Stillwater
19 Kevin Docherty, 11 16:09.1 Cretin-Derham Hall
20 Kyle Anderson, 12 16:09.5 Minnetonka
21 9 Jake Campbell, 12 16:11.1 Edina
22 10 Mitch Fisher 12 16:11.5 Andover
23 11 Kieran Kelly, 12 16:14.7 Chanhassen
24 12 Nathan Rock, 12 16:14.0 Rosemount
25 13 Wayde Hall, 11 16:16.2 Stillwater
26 14 Alec Olson, 12 16:16.7 Chanhassen
27 Nick Oelke, 11 16:17.0 Eastview
28 Ben Saxton, 12 16:17.3 Lakeville North
29 15 Steven Schimmel, 12 16:19.5 Rochester Mayo
30 16 Matt Lumbar, 10 16:20.7 Edina
31 17 Abdullahi Salan, 12 16:20.0 Burnsville
32 Parker Wharram, 12 16:21.1 Mound Westonka
33 18 Luke Lumbar, 10 16:21.3 Edina
34 19 Tayler Arness, 10 16:21.6 Stillwater
35 20 Steven Cotter 11 16:22.6 Andover
36 21 Ezra Olson, 11 16:23.2 Moorhead
37 22 Cal Lawton, 10 16:24.0 Eden Prairie
38 Troy Koivisto, 12 16:26.8 Dassel-Cokato
39 23 Trevor Capra, 11 16:27.0 Rosemount
40 24 Jonathan Keller, 11 16:27.4 Centennial
41 25 Faysol Mamoud, 9 16:27.7 Burnsville
42 Tyler Broadwell, 12 16:28.3 Sartell
43 26 Calvin Lehn, 12 16:28.8 Rosemount
44 27 Chris Meados 10 16:29.5 Andover
45 Sam Carlson, 10 16:29.8 Bemidji
46 Ryan Erdman, 12 16:30.3 Mankato East
47 Nate Rue, 12 16:30.6 St. Paul Como Park
48 Preston Zimny, 12 16:31.2 Little Falls
49 28 Matt Longen, 12 16:32.0 Centennial
50 29 Henry Zurn, 11 16:32.3 Eden Prairie
51 30 Nick Couillard, 12 16:33.0 Rosemount
52 31 Andrew Hansen, 12 16:33.2 Eden Prairie
53 Joe Klecker, 9 16:33.4 Hopkins
54 32 Kurt Hellmann 12 16:33.5 Andover
55 33 Sean Bjork, 11 16:35.0 Stillwater
56 Ryan Davis 12 16:35.4 Duluth East
57 Brendan Sage, 11 16:36.2 St. Michael-Albertville
58 34 Ryan Emanuelson, 12 16:37.9 Owatonna
59 Christian Leitner, 12 16:40.3 Red Wing
60 35 Matthew Lillehaugen, 11 16:40.5 Moorhead
61 Cruz Barrera, 12 16:41.0 Henry Sibley
62 36 Ali Ahmed, 10 16:41.2 Burnsville
63 37 Ricardo Reyes, 12 16:41.9 Eden Prairie
64 38 Matthew Berntson, 12 16:42.3 Edina
65 Phillip Lavallee, 12 16:42.5 Monticello
66 39 Mowlid Mohamed, 12 16:44.1 Willmar
67 40 Chandler Dye, 12 16:44.4 Rosemount
68 Andy Magnuson 10 16:44.9 Chisago Lakes
69 41 Grant Vankeulen, 12 16:46.9 Marshall
70 42 Jared Bartz, 11 16:47.2 White Bear Lake
71 43 Thomas Seifert, 10 16:47.7 Willmar
72 44 Spencer Versteeg, 11 16:47.8 Owatonna
73 45 Ben Long 12 16:48.2 Forest Lake
74 46 Jacob Young, 10 16:48.4 Eden Prairie
75 47 Kevin Grow, 10 16:48.8 Centennial
76 Anders Evenson, 12 16:49.0 Osseo
77 48 Nadir Yusuf, 8 16:49.5 Willmar
78 49 Peter Knoll, 11 16:49.7 Edina
79 50 Clare Brandt, 12 16:50.1 Rochester Mayo
80 51 Ryan Stewart, 11 16:50.4 Eden Prairie
81 52 Josh Young, 10 16:45.4 Moorhead
82 53 Joe Jackson 12 16:51.3 Forest Lake
83 54 Cameron Peterson, 11 16:52.2 Owatonna
84 55 Kyle Hellmann 12 16:53.3 Andover
85 Ryan Graham, 11 16:54.0 Maple Grove
86 56 Sam Anez, 10 16:55.9 Willmar
87 Sam Elfstrom, 12 16:57.0 Roseville Area
88 57 Trever Schwichtenburg, 11 16:57.9 Owatonna
89 58 Tyler Blumke, 12 16:58.0 Rosemount
90 Mike Greenstein, 12 16:58.2 Totino-Grace
91 59 Paul Nordquist, 12 16:58.4 Edina
92 60 Ben Jack, 10 16:58.8 Centennial
93 Max Wellens, 12 16:59.0 Simley
94 Zack Benning, 10 16:59.5 Hastings
95 Zac Bartolomeo, 11 16:59.6 Alexandria
96 61 Jack Odzer, 10 17:00.9 Eden Prairie
97 Chris Lawson, 12 17:01.0 St. Anthony Village
98 62 Chad DeAustin, 12 17:01.5 Marshall
99 63 Andre Hessini, 10 17:02.0 Mounds View
100 Lucas Trapp 8 17:02.4 Elk River


#13

101 Joe Louiselle, 10 17:03.0 Totino-Grace
102 64 Jacob Geraghty, 12 16:50.8 Moorhead
103 65 Ethan Anderson, 12 17:03.2 Stillwater
104 66 Cameron Economy, 10 17:03.3 Chanhassen
105 Reed Parent, 10 17:03.8 Rogers
106 67 Andrew Bell, 10 17:04.2 Marshall
107 68 Ryan Pewowaruk, 11 17:04.6 Rochester Mayo
108 69 Mark Holzerland, 11 17:05.7 Owatonna
109 70 Jack Ebel 11 17:06.3 Forest Lake
110 71 Ryan Bowler, 12 17:07.0 Centennial
111 72 Spencer Mertes, 12 17:07.1 Chanhassen
112 73 Grady Bell, 12 17:07.7 White Bear Lake
113 Zach Haus, 12 17:08.9 Fergus Falls
114 74 Alex Johannes, 12 17:09.0 Willmar
115 Calvin Mehrhof, 12 17:09.3 Coon Rapids
116 75 Ryan McKeefry 12 17:10.4 Andover
117 76 Seth Huseby, 9 17:11.5 Owatonna
118 77 Matt Chu, 12 17:12.0 Stillwater
119 Isaiah Barlow, 10 17:12.8 Hutchinson
120 78 Brendan Gessner, 12 17:13.0 Centennial
121 79 Sam Ivanecky, 9 17:13.4 Rosemount
122 80 Adam Luecke, 11 17:13.5 White Bear Lake
123 81 Tanner Bukowski, 11 17:15.0 Marshall
124 82 Shawn Wong, 11 17:16.4 Burnsville
125 83 Michael Hoff, 10 17:17.0 Mounds View
126 Hunter Bailey, 9 17:17.9 Winona
127 Wade Kruger, 10 17:18.1 St. Cloud Tech
128 84 Motuma Tilleskjor, 11 17:18.4 Centennial
129 85 Austin Miller, 12 17:19.2 Chanhassen
130 86 Bernie Floeder, 12 17:21.0 Mounds View
131 87 Sean Scott, 12 17:23.0 White Bear Lake
132 Joshua Frei, 12 17:23.5 Rochester John Marshall
133 88 Sam Warnes, 12 17:24.0 Mounds View
134 Paul Hale, 12 17:26.5 Rochester Century
135 89 Michael Glaser, 12 17:29.0 Rochester Mayo
136 90 Blaine Moran, 9 17:31.2 Marshall
137 91 Leo Hipp 9 17:31.4 Forest Lake
138 92 Zach Klein, 11 17:32.0 Rochester Mayo
139 93 Ryan Sawyer, 11 17:32.4 Willmar
140 94 Lucas Kivimaki 12 17:32.8 Andover
141 Will Sieling, 12 17:36.1 Alexandria
142 95 Austin Miley, 10 17:38.1 Willmar
143 96 Garrett Shah, 9 17:44.0 White Bear Lake
144 97 Myles Nicolai, 12 17:45.7 Moorhead
145 98 Jacob Wareheim, 11 17:48.7 Owatonna
146 99 Thomas Anderson, 11 17:50.0 White Bear Lake
147 100 Ben Kramka, 12 17:50.2 Mounds View
148 101 Kyle Bernier, 12 17:51.7 Moorhead
149 102 Candido Sanchez 7 17:53.4 Forest Lake
150 103 Cody Bernardy, 10 17:53.6 Marshall
151 104 Max Wang, 11 17:53.9 Mounds View
152 105 Grant Magnuson, 9 17:55.0 Chanhassen
153 106 Tommy Babcock 8 17:58.5 Forest Lake
154 107 Jake Stevens, 11 18:00.0 Burnsville
155 108 Mathew Janes, 11 18:02.2 Chanhassen
156 109 Sam Houching, 10 18:04.0 Burnsville
157 110 Wade DeAustin, 10 18:12.0 Marshall
158 111 Chad Couser, 8 18:15.3 Rochester Mayo
159 112 Alex Kelley 12 18:18.5 Forest Lake


#14

The two guys who I forgot for my top25 list are Ahmed Bule and Kyle Anderson, both will be top25, almost guaranteed.


#15

[FONT=Times New Roman]Stillwater
16 7 Eric Colvin, 11 16:05.0 Stillwater
18 8 Tom Linner, 12 16:08.0 Stillwater
25 13 Wayde Hall, 11 16:16.2 Stillwater
34 19 Tayler Arness, 10 16:21.6 Stillwater
55 33 Sean Bjork, 11 16:35.0 Stillwater
103 65 Ethan Anderson, 12 17:03.2 Stillwater
118 77 Matt Chu, 12 17:12.0 Stillwater
Total Places = 80

Edina
8 4 Will Burke, 11 15:55.1 Edina
21 9 Jake Campbell, 12 16:11.1 Edina
30 16 Matt Lumbar, 10 16:20.7 Edina
33 18 Luke Lumbar, 10 16:21.3 Edina
64 38 Matthew Berntson, 12 16:42.3 Edina
79 49 Peter Knoll, 11 16:49.7 Edina
92 59 Paul Nordquist, 12 16:58.4 Edina
[FONT=‘Calibri’,‘sans-serif’]Total Places = 85

Rosemount
24 12 Nathan Rock, 12 16:14.0 Rosemount
39 23 Trevor Capra, 11 16:27.0 Rosemount
43 26 Calvin Lehn, 12 16:28.8 Rosemount
51 30 Nick Couillard, 12 16:33.0 Rosemount
67 40 Chandler Dye, 12 16:44.4 Rosemount
90 58 Tyler Blumke, 12 16:58.0 Rosemount
121 79 Sam Ivanecky, 9 17:13.4 Rosemount
Total Places = 130

Andover
22 10 Mitch Fisher 12 16:11.5 Andover
35 20 Steven Cotter 11 16:22.6 Andover
44 27 Chris Meados 10 16:29.5 Andover
54 32 Kurt Hellmann 12 16:33.5 Andover
85 55 Kyle Hellmann 12 16:53.3 Andover
116 75 Ryan McKeefry 12 17:10.4 Andover
140 94 Lucas Kivimaki 12 17:32.8 Andover
Total Places = 144

Burnsville
2 1 Cole O’Brien, 12 15:33.0 Burnsville
31 17 Abdullahi Salan, 12 16:20.0 Burnsville
41 25 Faysol Mamoud, 9 16:27.7 Burnsville
62 36 Ali Ahmed, 10 16:41.2 Burnsville
124 82 Shawn Wong, 11 17:16.4 Burnsville
154 107 Jake Stevens, 11 18:00.0 Burnsville
156 109 Sam Houching, 10 18:04.0 Burnsville
Total Places = 161
[/FONT]

[FONT=Times New Roman]Eden Prairie
37 22 Cal Lawton, 10 16:24.0 Eden Prairie
50 29 Henry Zurn, 11 16:32.3 Eden Prairie
52 31 Andrew Hansen, 12 16:33.2 Eden Prairie
63 37 Ricardo Reyes, 12 16:41.9 Eden Prairie
75 46 Jacob Young, 10 16:48.4 Eden Prairie
81 51 Ryan Stewart, 11 16:50.4 Eden Prairie
97 61 Jack Odzer, 10 17:00.9 Eden Prairie
Total Places = 165

Moorhead
5 2 Glen Ellingson, 12 15:46.5 Moorhead
36 21 Ezra Olson, 11 16:23.2 Moorhead
60 35 Matthew Lillehaugen, 11 16:40.5 Moorhead
81 52 Josh Young, 10 16:45.4 Moorhead
102 64 Jacob Geraghty, 12 16:50.8 Moorhead
144 97 Myles Nicolai, 12 17:45.7 Moorhead
148 101 Kyle Bernier, 12 17:51.7 Moorhead
Total Places = 174

[/FONT]

Rochester Mayo
6 3 Riley Macon, 12 15:48.3 Rochester Mayo
29 15 Steven Schimmel, 12 16:19.5 Rochester Mayo
80 50 Clare Brandt, 12 16:50.1 Rochester Mayo
107 68 Ryan Pewowaruk, 11 17:04.6 Rochester Mayo
135 89 Michael Glaser, 12 17:29.0 Rochester Mayo
138 92 Zach Klein, 11 17:32.0 Rochester Mayo
158 111 Chad Couser, 8 18:15.3 Rochester Mayo
Total Places = 225


#16

Centennial
40 24 Jonathan Keller, 11 16:27.4 Centennial
49 28 Matt Longen, 12 16:32.0 Centennial
76 47 Kevin Grow, 10 16:48.8 Centennial
93 60 Ben Jack, 10 16:58.8 Centennial
110 71 Ryan Bowler, 12 17:07.0 Centennial
120 78 Brendan Gessner, 12 17:13.0 Centennial
128 84 Motuma Tilleskjor, 11 17:18.4 Centennial
Total Places = 230

Chanhassen
23 11 Kieran Kelly, 12 16:14.7 Chanhassen
26 14 Alec Olson, 12 16:16.7 Chanhassen
104 66 Cameron Economy, 10 17:03.3 Chanhassen
111 72 Spencer Mertes, 12 17:07.1 Chanhassen
129 85 Austin Miller, 12 17:19.2 Chanhassen
152 105 Grant Magnuson, 9 17:55.0 Chanhassen
155 108 Mathew Janes, 11 18:02.2 Chanhassen
Total Places = 248

Owatonna
58 34 Ryan Emanuelson, 12 16:37.9 Owatonna
73 44 Spencer Versteeg, 11 16:47.8 Owatonna
84 54 Cameron Peterson, 11 16:52.2 Owatonna
89 57 Trever Schwichtenburg, 11 16:57.9 Owatonna
108 69 Mark Holzerland, 11 17:05.7 Owatonna
117 76 Seth Huseby, 9 17:11.5 Owatonna
145 98 Jacob Wareheim, 11 17:48.7 Owatonna
Total Places = 258

Willmar
66 39 Mowlid Mohamed, 12 16:44.1 Willmar
72 44 Thomas Seifert, 10 16:47.7 Willmar
78 49 Nadir Yusuf, 8 16:49.5 Willmar
87 57 Sam Anez, 10 16:55.9 Willmar
114 74 Alex Johannes, 12 17:09.0 Willmar
139 93 Ryan Sawyer, 11 17:32.4 Willmar
142 95 Austin Miley, 10 17:38.1 Willmar
Total Places = 263

White Bear Lake
12 5 Joel Reichow, 12 16:00.0 White Bear Lake
71 42 Jared Bartz, 11 16:47.2 White Bear Lake
112 73 Grady Bell, 12 17:07.7 White Bear Lake
122 80 Adam Luecke, 11 17:13.5 White Bear Lake
131 87 Sean Scott, 12 17:23.0 White Bear Lake
143 96 Garrett Shah, 9 17:44.0 White Bear Lake
146 99 Thomas Anderson, 11 17:50.0 White Bear Lake
Total Places = 287


Mounds View
14 6 Zach Roozen, 12 16:01.3 Mounds View
100 63 Andre Hessini, 10 17:02.0 Mounds View
125 83 Michael Hoff, 10 17:17.0 Mounds View
130 86 Bernie Floeder, 12 17:21.0 Mounds View
133 88 Sam Warnes, 12 17:24.0 Mounds View
147 100 Ben Kramka, 12 17:50.2 Mounds View
151 104 Max Wang, 11 17:53.9 Mounds View
Total Places = 326

Marshall
70 41 Grant Vankeulen, 12 16:46.9 Marshall
99 62 Chad DeAustin, 12 17:01.5 Marshall
106 67 Andrew Bell, 10 17:04.2 Marshall
123 81 Tanner Bukowski, 11 17:15.0 Marshall
136 90 Blaine Moran, 9 17:31.2 Marshall
150 103 Cody Bernardy, 10 17:53.6 Marshall
157 110 Wade DeAustin, 10 18:12.0 Marshall
Total Places = 341

Forest Lake
74 45 Ben Long 12 16:48.2 Forest Lake
83 53 Joe Jackson 12 16:51.3 Forest Lake
109 70 Jack Ebel 11 17:06.3 Forest Lake
137 91 Leo Hipp 9 17:31.4 Forest Lake
149 102 Candido Sanchez 7 17:53.4 Forest Lake
153 106 Tommy Babcock 8 17:58.5 Forest Lake
159 112 Alex Kelley 12 18:18.5 Forest Lake
Total Places = 361


#17

What’s your method of coming up with these predictions?


#18

There…:cool:


#19

You gave my boy his worst time this season by 12 seconds :frowning: :wink:

No way is last place only at 18:15. And I don’t think there will be that big of a gap from 2nd to 3rd team wise. Otherwise there shouldn’t be criticizing as this is impossible to do and yes people are gonna be off by 30 seconds or 2 minutes for that matter and some people are going to have amazing races, its obviously impossible to predict who. I always like seeing these predictions, thanks 14.90!


With Apologies to LedZep
#20

i just have to say this. i guess i admire your… willingness to do something so tedious, but honestly, this is a joke. no one here can come and honestly say they know enough about each runner on each team in the state meet to actually have a sound prediction of how they will all finish. that’s why no one else makes the attempt. when you get to the point where you just start throwing names up there, you’re not predicting anymore, you’re just rolling dice. you cannot tell me that you never reached this point during this process. can you honestly say you know leo hipp as a runner, and that you really think he can beat zach klein but just doesn’t have what it takes to beat blaine moran? if you can, i guess you can disregard this. but i highly doubt you can.

why am i calling you out on this? i wouldn’t care if you simply just wanted to make shot-in-the-dark guesses, that’s not my problem. except you go all the way down to the bottom of the list. what happens when the kid you predict to get last place just happens to be an avid tracktalk reader? hopefully he uses it as motivation and ends up having a good race, but we have to remember that these are high school kids we’re talking about. no one wants to see their name on the bottom of the list