Ammar Moussa in Cardinal 5k


Obviously not a first-heat guy, but should be interesting. predictions?




He ran faster than this in a high school race


I’m thinking around 14:00.


Edward Cheserek is running in one tonight at Larry Ellis. He could/should be going sub-14. It will be interesting to see how Moussa does afterward.




3 Cheserek, Edward GRAY 14:02.33


No way this kid loses to any high schooler the rest of this year.

1:50.9/4:08 relays last weekend, 14:02 now. Only way he loses is tactical error, he’s too much to handle for LV or anyone as of now.


like, say, taking a mile out in 55 seconds?




Are you sure? LV has run faster than 4:08 and his indoor two mile time generally converts to 13:50-55. Not saying he won’t beat Lukas but saying “no way this kid loses” is a bit out there.


im taking lukas any day of the week over chesarek at anything 1500 and up.


I don’t see Moussa breaking 14:00. I see him close to 14:00. I hope to be wrong though.


I don’t see anything that indicated that Moussa is in sub14 shape, but then again there have been bigger surprises than this.

14flat is 67.2 per lap, which means he would have to go through 2miles in about 8:55, which is what, 10 seconds off of his 2mile time?

Hard to reconcile that.


for reference, here were derrick’s splits during his 13:55.

433, 430, 419


What is Moussa’s 2 mile PR? 8:48 or so?? Derrick ran 13:55 and I would argue fairly confidently (and Mav I think you may agree), that had he not come down with Mono and gotten in a good race he could have broken 8:40. I don’t see Moussa doing it, or at least his current times wouldn’t suggest that he would.


i feel very confident that derrick would have set the 2 mile record at prefontaine and then come down to a sprint finish vs german at NON where he would have run 834 just getting nosed out by german going 833.


I remember. Two things of note - first, that he was obviously in better shape than 8:48 for the deuce on that day.

Second, his last lap was 60, so his last mile was 4:26 ‘pace’ or thereabouts before he kicked, so he slowly knocked the pace down, another indication of his superb fitness.


Agreed 100%. In fact, I’d say i don’t see any high schooler beating LV this year.

So far as Moussa goes, I see him breaking 14 if the pace goes well. He’s a pretty fierce competitor so i think if the winning pace is somewhere near 14 flat he has a chance of getting under. That said, I’m going to predict that he runs 14:15 because of the way the race plays out.


Exactly. What more does Lukas have to do this year? His 5-6 week stretch at the end of XC starting with the IL State meet through the NXN and FL Regionals and then Nationals, his Indoor heroics and times, running super close to Bairu over 8k then coming down to a sprint finish in a mile against Baddeley. All in a days work for this kid.
His XC season was epic, his Indoor season was as well, he’s killing it in the roads and I see him doing the same in the Outdoor meets he runs.
No way I’d bet against him.