3:55 is the new 4:00


#1

There are still a few more races this season and a really big one today (Big 12 finals) but between this year and last it’s safe to say that the new 3:55 is the new 4:00 in the mile. Thirty three guys did it last year and there are already 29 this year.

I had just gotten done watching the MPSF finals from yesterday when I reached this conclusion. While the Oregon-Stanford schools always have studs I didn’t even know who these guys were besides Atchoo. Never used to be like that. You’d know exactly who was in the hunt for sub-4 and it’d only be a handful of names. Now everyone is doing it! CRAZY

[FLOTRACK]http://www.flotrack.org/embed/OTIzNjk1ODU1?related=1[/FLOTRACK]

1	O'Hare, Chris	SR-4	Tulsa	3:52.98	Millrose Games	02/16/13	 
2	Lalang, Lawi	JR-3	Arizona	3:54.56	Millrose Games	02/16/13	 
3	Hill, Ryan	SR-4	North Carolina St.	3:54.89	Millrose Games	02/16/13	 
4	Casey, Patrick	SR-4	Oklahoma	3:56.28	Razorback Invitational	01/25/13	 
5	Creese, Robby	SO-2	Penn State	3:57.11	UW Husky Classic	02/08/13	 
6	Atchoo, Michael	JR-3	Stanford	3:57.14	MPSF Indoor Track and Fi...	02/22/13	 
7	Rotich, Anthony	SO-2	UTEP	3:57.76 @	New Mexico Collegiate Cl...	02/01/13	 
8	Botezan, Raul	SR-4	Oklahoma State	3:57.79	UW Husky Classic	02/08/13	 
9	Jenkins, Eric	JR-3	Northeastern	3:58.11	2013 Boston University T...	01/25/13	 
10	Matthews, Julian	SR-4	Providence	3:58.14	Boston University Make U...	02/14/13	 
11	Farrell, Thomas	SR-4	Oklahoma State	3:58.20	Razorback Invitational	01/25/13	 
12	Erassa, Kirubel	JR-3	Oklahoma State	3:58.24	Razorback Invitational	01/25/13	 
13	Gillespie, Matthew	JR-3	Iona	3:58.55	2013 Boston University T...	01/25/13	 
14	Johnson, Brett	JR-3	Oregon	3:58.62	UW Husky Classic	02/08/13	 
15	Stilin, Joseph	SR-4	Texas	3:58.66	Razorback Invitational	01/25/13	 
16	Stutzman, Tyler	SR-4	Stanford	3:58.85	MPSF Indoor Track and Fi...	02/22/13	 
17	Miner, Matt	SR-4	Oregon	3:59.01	MPSF Indoor Track and Fi...	02/22/13	 
18	Elkaim, Jeramy	SO-2	Oregon	3:59.18	MPSF Indoor Track and Fi...	02/22/13	 
19	Mudd, Austin	SO-2	Wisconsin	3:59.33	Notre Dame Meyo Invitati...	02/01/13	 
20	Fallon, Christopher	SR-4	Ohio State	3:59.37	Tyson Invitational	02/08/13	 
21	Clarkson, Fabian	FR-1	Oklahoma State	3:59.47	Razorback Invitational	01/25/13	 
22	Kidder, Brannon	FR-1	Penn State	3:59.48	Penn State National Invi...	01/25/13	 
22	Moskowitz, Shane	JR-3	Oklahoma State	3:59.48	Razorback Invitational	01/25/13	 
24	Shrader, Brian	SO-2	Northern Arizona	3:59.52 @	2013 NAU Tune Up	02/14/13	 
25	Kithuka, Kennedy	SR-4	Texas Tech	3:59.53	Texas A&M Challenge Pres...	01/25/13	 
26	Noelle, Chad	FR-1	Oregon	3:59.57	UW Husky Classic	02/08/13	 
27	Legesse, Frezer	SR-4	Oklahoma	3:59.83	Tyson Invitational	02/08/13	 
27	Bitchell, Adam	JR-3	New Mexico	3:59.83 @	New Mexico Collegiate In...	01/25/13	 
29	Wade, Nick	SR-4	Cornell	4:00.00	SPIRE NCAA D-I Track Inv...	02/08/13	

Thoughts?


#2

With the speed of these indoor tracks today 4:00 is more attainable, but it’s still the mark. Most of the guys on your list dipped under by less than 2 seconds. More foreigners in US colleges too.


#3

Really?

Brett Johnson who paced yesterday ran 4:08 in HS, now has run 3:58 that’s ten seconds in 4 years

EWlkaim ran 13:39 and now broke 4:00

Chad Noelle ran sub 4:10 in HS

Creese ran sub 4 as a freshman and opened at 2:19.x a time Centrowitz just had trouble running

Atchoo ran 4:07 in HS

Fleet 4:02 in HS

Kidder 4:03 in HS

Guys are just better today

Ryan Hill has run 7:40s and 13:27 , is his sub 4 a shocker? ReallY? Maybe a bit faster than what I thought he might run, but not much.


#4

But only 3 guys have broken 3:55. I would say sub-3:58 (8) is a better equivalent.


#5

Yes. Zen is correct in that 4:00 in no longer as special as it once was (pretty obvious, really), but it is probably closer to 3:58.0. Of course, you can do this with every event.

(Fleet was really dropped badly in that race)


#6

I was thinking the exact same thing. A lot of those guys are well-known and were/are big studs.


#7

fleet also missed 1.5-2 years with injury.


#8

Do the ergonomics of the mondo tracks really have that much of an impact?

On the one side of things I feel if you run 3:59.99 it’s still a sub-4 mile but on the other side, things have gotten so out of control that the NCAA felt the need to come up with conversion methods to and from 200m flat tracks to make everything equal.

And to agree with most of you, 3:58 is probably better than 3:55.


#9

You really only knew who Atchoo was in that MPSF race?


#10

I think 4:00 is still 4 minutes

I think guys today are just better, tracks are better, nutrition is better, coaching overall is way better. Competition is deeper etc etc and so on.

These guys that are running 4:00 are no accidents

Elkaim ran 8:46 for 3200M or faster than Rupp did in HS off 45-55 miles a week or so

Brett Johnson ran 4:08 and 15:40’s at Holmdel in HS,. not a bad mix

Soner or later guys like these would run under 4:00 if healthy, BIGGEST factor and in good spots.

Scotty, Mac Fleet has missed a ton of time, at 4:01, he gets kind of a pass doesn;t he? Until he runs way more than 3 races? He went from 4:05 DMR tactical leg at Amory to 4:01.x? Not so bad
:smiley:
See? 4:01? used to be something!!


#11

I think another factor along with everything posted by king (of course this is more long term and a better comparison to the 70a and 80s) is that as the population increases, there will be more outliers, and with that increase in outliers there will be more extreme outliers.


#12

No it was a slight exaggeration but I was right on the same page with the flotrack guys about Miner. I was like, “Who?”.


#13

Hey, hey. No need to beat yourself up that badly.


#14

Funny +1


#15

Kinger:) , you are correct in that 4min is still 4min, but the discussion is about the “specialness” of the mark. 4flat is clearly not as special mark as it was 25yrs ago. Why would it be when tracks are better, and times are dropping? Still tough to dip under, but plenty of guys are doing it these days.

As for Fleet, I am aware of his layoff, and it has showed in his races. Pulled along nicely by Johnson, then dropped badly. 22yrs old an in his 4th yr. He will certainly improve, and will have to if he wants to be a factor nationally. Lots of talented runners in this country, some with their own difficulties, and they are out to win races…at all costs. No one waiting for him.


#16

…but not sub-4:09, I believe. Breaking 4 less than 2 years out of HS is just off the charts for him.

I think that’s 4 recent NY guys to go sub-4. Interestingly, two of them (Noelle and Van Ingen) are from tiny schools in Section 4, kind of a backwater area. (Merber and Hatz are the other two).


#17

Van Ingen was an incredibly tough nut

I always though Noelle might go faster his senior year
running very well now


#18

Seeing as we brought up the name Mac Fleet, I’ve got to ask you guys who are in the know…

On two separate occasions, from two entirely different types of people in this US running world, the name Mac Fleet has come up in conversation with regard to EPO use in high school.

Sometimes there are brash conclusions reached by naysayers but I come from a place where if a finger is pointed people know it’s true. And it can’t just be a coincidence that his name and EPO were brought up.

Anyone heard the same thing? Personally, I’d think it’d be very hard for a high schooler to get their hands on EPO …


#19

I have no direct or indirect knowledge of anything with respect to that.

That being said… there are certain areas of the country where the athletic culture is so “dirty”, it’d be naive to think that it’s not filtering down into the HS ranks. South Florida is the area I have direct experience with… it’s routine down there for an amateur cyclist to dope in order to win a pair of socks in a race, or just to kick *ss in a group ride. It’s disgusting.


#20

Never ever heard that and ity would be entirely possible in today’s world

Mac Fleet’s father was good and I alwasy thought him a top of the line talent

I cannot speak to any other issues, he has missed a ton of high level training time, that is easy to spot. why and for what? I do not know that.