Who’s gonna qualify? What’s it going to take to be extra qualifer? Who’s going to be extra qualifiers? Post your thoughts, views and predictions…
Carl Hirsch will qualify automatically in the 1600 and 800 and then get in on time in the 3200.
Winning times at Waukesha North will be:
4:14 - Hirsch
1:53 - Johnson
9:16 - Campbell
Wisconsin Lutheran Sec.
Madison Memorial Sec.
Waukesha North Sec.
Oshkosh North Sec.
Rice Lake Sec.
Wow. Nice work.
You’ve got 7 EQ’s from the Waukesha North Sec. I’m curious about what you or others think the times might be. Will Hirsch go out hard in the 1600 since it’s his first race and throw down a sub 4:12? What will the 6th runner have to be in the 1600 and 3200 to earn an EQ? I think sub 4:20 and sub 9:36. Sub 1:55 in the 800 for EQ?
Can’t wait to see the results.
I appreciated your take on it. Overall looks like a pretty good guess.
However, I don’t think there will be as many EQ as you think. I do think there may be one or two per event; but to have 3 extras would mean that only 2 other people from around the state have a better time than the 6th runner. Madison Memorial sectional, for example, will have fast times in at least the 1600, since there are 4 sub-4:28 guys fighting for 3 spots… then you add in someone like Ramos and probably another guy or two that will add an uncontested 4:20-4:22, and I just don’t think the 5th and 6th guy will be that low.Perhaps a 4:23 or 4:24, but I think that will just be out of reach of the 8th spot.
I do feel bad for the 5th and 6th guys from those difficult sectionals that will just miss out. As others have said, it’s just the (bad) luck of the placement.
Whatever happens, should be fun to watch. Fun time of the year.
I think people are forgetting how windy it is today and that will definitely affect the times and possible the strategy of certain runners. Not sure if the entire state is this windy, but the Miwaukee area is over 20 mph winds. Supposed to,die down sometime tonight. If some sectionals are really windy and some aren’t, that could affect who gets time qualifiers.
I gave as many extra qualifiers as I did for a few reasons. The 1600m will be the first event for most and will be a hard & honest effort for the gun because of the depth. Everyone I have listed qualifying have the capability of breaking 420 in my opinion. The 3200 I see guys who aren’t a favorite to win who will be fresher pushing the pace together like Salmon @ a 445ish first mile to get as many extra qualifiers as in as possible. Guys like Hirsch, Campbell will just sit for the first mile while the others do the work. Waukesha North’s facility as well is well protected from the win compared to most facilities so that added benefit will help as well. Having coached in that sectional the 6 years prior to this as well, I just see it being a very special reginoal. Good luck to everyone tonight.
This could have a big effect because at least up in this part of the state (west-central) it’s not really windy at all (at least not right now). It looks to be pretty ideal racing conditions here.
I agree about the weather. I still see the quality and depth of the field in the Waukesha North sectional having the edge over a little better weather with fields that don’t necessarily have nearly as fast to qualify.
Love to see some more predictions.
8th best qualifier:
CCdude is right…COMPARED to much of this Spring, the weather conditions in the NW sections of WI should be good, but still breezy… http://www.weather.com/weather/hourbyhour/graph/Eau+Claire+WI+USWI0204:1:US
So if my recall is correct - Colfax(d3) will have a head wind early, changing to a cross breeze. Bloomer(d2) should have mainly a tailwind, and I’m not sure if Rice Lake’s new facility has the ability to run either direction, but that facility probably is the only one of the three that will have any wind blocks.
8th best qualifier:
4X800: 8:01; 0 EQ
1600: 4:20; 1 EQ
800: 1:56; 1 EQ
3200: 9:33; 2 EQ
I think these are good for the most part. However, in the Waukesha North Sectional I don’t think Tosa West has much of a chance in the 4x8 even with Floyd-Mews and Campbell running in it. Their other 2 guys are around 2:10 so even if the two stars run the lights out, they are still probably only looking at around an 8:10 time. IMO the race for 3rd will be between Waukesha West, Marquette, and Kettle Moraine with all 3 having a pretty even shot. Should be an exciting race for that final qualifier!
Man…I wish Geisness woulda ran that 1600 instead of 800 because I definitely think he was capable of an extra qualifier time and woulda given me a perfect pick more importantly in my individuals at that sectionals.-note sarcasm.
On a serious note, congrats to everyone on a great sectional day and performances and to everyone who made it to state!